Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Blue Nile (NILE) discusses online marketing costs (Q1 conf call quotes)

Mark Vadon, CEO of online jewelry retailer Blue Nile (ticker: NILE), discussed online advertising costs and marketing on his May 4th Q1 earnings conference call. Key quotes:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 11, 2005 at 01:47 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Sell-side reaction to Blue Nile's (NILE) earnings

From American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney's note to clients reacting to Blue Nile's (ticker: NILE) Q1 earnings:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 10, 2005 at 12:53 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, April 11, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 11, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PRVD, ticker: RCOM, ticker: SRVY, ticker: TCOW, ticker: TWX, ticker: TZOO, ticker: VRSN, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 31, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on March 31, 2005 at 12:23 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: KNOT, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NILE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 18, 2005

Victims of pay-per-click ad inflation

The most striking theme that ran through the Q4 financial results of Internet companies, irrespective of size, was the impact of rising pay-per-click ad prices. The winners were the ad brokers - Google and Yahoo. The losers were companies that rely on advertising to attract traffic, as their marketing expenses grew faster than their revenues.

This is a critical theme for investors (rather than short-term traders). Do you own stocks in companies that are dependent on advertising and helpless in the face of rising costs? Here's a list of the victims, with the relevant stats and comments from The Internet Stock Blog's write-up of their Q4 results or recent SEC filings:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 18, 2005 at 10:25 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DIET, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: EELN, ticker: LGBT, ticker: MNST, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: PRVD, ticker: SHOP, ticker: SPRK, ticker: TSCM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2)

Sunday, March 06, 2005

February short interest

Short interest in Nasdaq stocks rose by 6.3% month over month in February. But short interest for Nasdaq Internet stocks rose by more: on a basket of 25 Internet stocks tracked by American Technology Research, short interest  rose by 10.4%. Details:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 6, 2005 at 07:41 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ELNK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Surprise stock implications of wealthy online user growth

Nielsen/NetRatings reports (PDF) that the fastest growing segment of Internet users by income during 2004 was the top group - those with household incomes over $150,000. Details of the Nielsen/NetRatings report, then analysis including stock implications:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 12:05 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: IACI, ticker: NILE, ticker: PRVD, ticker: REDE, ticker: SCH, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (3)

Monday, February 14, 2005

Odimo (ODMO), grey market online watch retailer with soaring marketing costs, prices IPO at low-end of range

Luxury goods retailer Odimo (ticker: ODMO) raised $28 million in an IPO led by CIBC World Markets, but the offering priced at the low end of the range. Odimo had lowered the range to $9-10 on Friday, and the offering priced on Monday at $9. Odimo runs Diamond.com, Ashford.com and WorldofWatches.com. Here are some stats about the company's business, some quick comments, and key extracts from the S-1:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 14, 2005 at 09:51 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Amtech Research maintains Hold on Blue Nile

Here's what American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney said about Blue Nile after the company's earnings report last night:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 9, 2005 at 02:51 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Amazon's bizarre press release

The night that online jewelry retailer Blue Nile releases earnings, Amazon puts out a press release that says its Q4 jewelry sales were up 120% year over year, and it has great jewelry offerings for Valentines Day. Here's what's odd:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 8, 2005 at 11:32 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Blue Nile (NILE) on the online jewelry market (quotes from the conf call)

Here's what Blue Nile (ticker: NILE) CEO Mark Vadon had to say on his Q4 earnings conference call about marketing, diamond prices and Blue Nile's market share:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 8, 2005 at 11:22 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Blue Nile beats by 2 cents, guides below consensus (4Q04 earnings)

Blue Nile, the online jewelry retailer, beat Q4 EPS estimates by 2 cents but set guidance for 2005 below consensus. The stock rose by about 2% in late trading. Here are the key points from its Q4 earnings and guidance announcement, plus a quick comment:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 8, 2005 at 11:14 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, February 03, 2005

Overstock provides more detail on "build a ring"

Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne gave more details about his company's positioning in the online jewelry market. The comments are critical reading for owners of NILE. Here they are:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 3, 2005 at 07:00 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 28, 2005

So you thought that Overstock doesn't compete with Tiffany and Blue Nile (NILE)?

Thought that Overstock.com only sells low-price, mass-market jewelry? Check this out, and reconsider...

Posted by David Jackson on January 28, 2005 at 11:24 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Comparison shopping and Blue Nile (NILE)

Quick question: Since comparison shopping puts price pressure on broad e-commerce retailers like Amazon, will we see a similar phenomenon with online jewelry retailers like Blue Nile?

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Posted by David Jackson on January 28, 2005 at 11:00 AM in ticker: NILE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Overstock enters build-to-order engagement ring market

Overstock.com announced that it was launching "build your own ring" capability on its online jewelry store in time for Valentine's day. This increases competition for other online retailers, including Amazon and Blue Nile, that already offer customers the ability to choose the stone and setting of a ring. Overstock, though, faces an interesting challenge in this business:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 28, 2005 at 09:55 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

European e-shopping could favor ECST, NILE, OSTK, REDE more than AMZN, EBAY

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that savy Europeans are taking advantage of their strong currencies by shopping from U.S. online retailers. The article mentions Amazon as a potential beneficiary. But here's a point to consider for investors in e-tail stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 11:40 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IBUY, ticker: NILE, ticker: REDE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 07, 2005

Will people buy diamond rings online?

Tech Uncovered has an in-depth article called Tiffany, Diamonds & the Internet which takes a contrarian view of Tiffany's business. The consensus is that Tiffany's brand and clientele insulates it from price competition, particularly from Internet retailers. But the Tech Uncovered article argues that Internet stores like Blue Nile could seriously damage Tiffany's growth. Although Tiffany, Diamonds & the Internet was written in August, its discussion of longer-term trends should be relevant for a while. Full article here.

Posted by David Jackson on January 7, 2005 at 12:03 AM in ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Five Internet danger signs to watch for in 2005

The next few weeks will likely see a flurry of predictions for 2005, to the point where you'll be sick of reading them. So instead, I'm providing something which I hope will be more useful for investors in Internet stocks and managers of Internet companies: a checklist of danger signals for Internet investors to look out for next year. For each danger signal, I've specified which stocks will subsequently be at risk:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 11:03 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: BFLY, ticker: CNET, ticker: CTRP, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (4)

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Short interest plummets on four Internet stocks

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney does a great job of compiling short interest data on 'Net stocks. This morning he reports significant month over month changes in short interest in four stocks:

  • CNET down 13%
  • DCLK down 17%
  • HOMS down 32%
  • NILE down 11%

Short interest on NASDAQ stocks is generally down, as hedge funds covered short positions to participate in the recent rally. But declining short interest is actually bearish for stocks, as it means there's less pent-up buying demand.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm short CNET.

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 08:33 AM in ticker: CNET, ticker: DCLK, ticker: HOMS, ticker: NILE | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, December 27, 2004

Were holiday online sales THAT good?

E-commerce stocks are up sharply today on the comScore prediction that holiday online sales will grow 28% year over year. Earlier, comScore and others were predicting online sales growth of 22-25%. So the stocks are moving:

  • Amazon up over 8%
  • Bluefly up 11%
  • Drugstore.com up 4%
  • Ecost up 9%
  • Overstock up 2%
  • Shopping.com up 6%

Yahoo!, eBay and Blue Nile aren't participating in this rally. But I wonder whether three percentage points of upside to the aggregate growth number (28% from 25%) is enough to justify the moves in the pure-play e-commerce stocks. After all, 28% growth is still below last year's growth rate of 30%, and offline retailers like Wal-Mart are taking market share online.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm long SHOP.

Posted by David Jackson on December 27, 2004 at 01:40 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)