Friday, June 17, 2005

Netflix discusses downloadable movies (NFLX)

Barry McCarthy, CFO of online movie rental company Netflix (ticker: NFLX), presented at the Morgan Stanley Small Cap Conference on June 15th. (That means that Morgan Stanley hosted small cap companies, not that Morgan Stanley is becoming a small cap stock...) Here's his argument why DVD rentals will not be displaced by movie downloading:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 17, 2005 at 12:28 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Sell-side commentary on Netflix-Walmart alliance (NFLX, WMT)

Pacific Growth Equities analyst Derek Brown sent the following in a note to clients on May 20th about Netflix' (ticker: NFLX) alliance with Walmart.com:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 1, 2005 at 01:36 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Walmart (WMT) teams up with Netflix (NFLX); Blockbuster Online (BBI) tests higher prices

David Strahlberg at The Media Stock Blog writes:

Walmart (ticker: WMT) has ended its foray into the online DVD rental business and is partnering with Netflix (ticker: NFLX).  Separately, Blockbuster (ticker: BBI) is testing higher prices.  Here are some details:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 19, 2005 at 10:11 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Netflix' (NFLX) Blockbuster relief

Netflix's stock (ticker: NFLX) has benefited from the perception that that Blockbuster may pull out of the online DVD rental market, sparked by Carl Icahn's election to Blockbuster's Board. Reaction from Pacific Growth Research analyst Derek Brown's May 9th note to clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 18, 2005 at 10:28 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, May 16, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on May 16, 2005 at 10:33 AM in ticker: AMTD, ticker: ET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HLTH, ticker: IACI, ticker: MIX, ticker: NAPS, ticker: NFLX, ticker: RNWK, ticker: SCH, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX, ticker: WBMD, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Should a sell-side analyst call Netflix (NFLX) 'a worthless piece of crap'?

From The Media Stock Blog: The blog site Thomas Hawk's Digital Connection recently posted a fascinating dialogue between Davis Freeberg and Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. Freeberg questioned Pachter's Sell rating on Netflix (ticker: NFLX), while recommending that investors buy Blockbuster (ticker: BBI) and Movie Gallery (ticker: MOVI). Pachter's response and the 26 (and counting) comments that follow are interesting, amusing and sometimes informative.

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Posted by David Jackson on May 3, 2005 at 03:07 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Bambi Francisco on Internet stocks' Adware exposure

Bambi Francisco, who covers Internet stocks for MarketWatch, published a column this morning about Internet companies' exposure to potential Adware/Spyware litigation. It's surprising that the issue has hit the mainstream financial literature so quickly - most sell-side analysts haven't yet acknowledged the risk to stocks. Perhaps this says a lot about the quality of Ms. Francisco's coverage. Key quotes from her article:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 3, 2005 at 11:07 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CNET, ticker: FWHT, ticker: MIX, ticker: NFLX, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, April 25, 2005

Sell-side reaction to Netflix results

Pacific Growth Equities analyst Derek Brown sent a note to clients outlining his reaction to Netfix' (ticker: NFLX) earnings results. An extract:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 25, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 22, 2005

Netflix comments on increased marketing spend (1Q05 conf call quotes)

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings provided lower than expected guidance for Q2 and the remainder of 2005 on his conference call, and the stock plunged in response. Here's his justification for increasing Netflix' spending on marketing and emphasising lower priced rental plans:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 22, 2005 at 01:43 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Netflix stock slammed by low guidance (1Q05 earnings)

Netflix' stock (ticker: NFLX) fell about 8% in trading the morning after the company reported Q1 results that beat estimates but provided lower than consensus revenue guidance for Q2. Details:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 22, 2005 at 01:25 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 19, 2005 at 01:23 AM in ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: PCLN, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 12, 2005 at 03:11 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: NFLX, ticker: RCOM, ticker: SINA | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 31, 2005

Netflix (NFLX) passes 3 million subscriber mark; adds 400,000 subs in Q1

Netflix (ticker: NFLX) announced that it now has more than three million subscribers, after adding 400,000 subs during the first quarter of 2005. David Strahlberg of The Media Stock Blog writes (full permission granted):

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Posted by David Jackson on March 31, 2005 at 12:19 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Short interest jumps for FLWS, HOMS, LOOK and NILE

Short interest data is now available for Nasdaq stocks through March 15th. Short interest has rocketed for some internet stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 30, 2005 at 10:25 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: PCLN, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, March 20, 2005

IACI to purchase ASKJ, plus news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on March 20, 2005 at 09:49 PM in ticker: AMTD, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GSIC, ticker: IACI, ticker: MAMA, ticker: MNST, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: SHOP, ticker: UBET, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Netflix - NFLX - stretching?

Six minutes ago online movie rental company Netflix sent the following email to its subscribers:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 10, 2005 at 01:04 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Where was Netflix?

David Strahlberg summarizes Blockbuster's Q4 results for The Media Stock Blog. He points that "Netflix (ticker: NFLX) was not mentioned a single time during the call". Netflix investors take note: here are the stats about Blockbuster Online:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 9, 2005 at 10:23 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, March 06, 2005

February short interest

Short interest in Nasdaq stocks rose by 6.3% month over month in February. But short interest for Nasdaq Internet stocks rose by more: on a basket of 25 Internet stocks tracked by American Technology Research, short interest  rose by 10.4%. Details:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 6, 2005 at 07:41 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ELNK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 04, 2005

Under the hood of Google Movies - implications for GOOG and other stocks

Within hours of Google's announcement, its new movie search service received rave reviews from a lot of people. But investors and those wishing to understand the implications for Google and the other Internet companies need to dig deeper:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 4, 2005 at 12:43 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NYT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Sunday, February 20, 2005

Netflix (NFLX) on The Long Tail in movie rentals (quotes from the Citigroup presentation)

Netflix has revolutionized the movie rental business by offering a far larger choice of movies than is available from a regular rental store; as a result, a larger proportion of Netflix' rentals are "back catalog" rentals as opposed to new releases. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings discussed the economics ofcatalog versus new release movie rentals at his presentation at the Smith Barney Citigroup investors conference. Here's what he said:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 20, 2005 at 01:22 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Disposal of the disposable DVD?

Home Media Retailing reports that Walt Disney's (DIS) Buena Vista unit is ending its trial of disposable DVDs, called EZ-Ds.

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Posted by David Jackson on February 17, 2005 at 05:03 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 24, 2005

Herb unrepentant as NFLX up 15% in late trading

Netflix' stock traded up 15% this evening after the company's results and conference call. So it turns out that Mischa is smarter than Herb, at least for a day. But Herb is unrepentant. Here's what he wrote this evening, and here's a quick comment on it:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 24, 2005 at 11:27 PM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Netflix (NFLX) on DVD rental competition (quotes from the conf call)

Here's what Neflix had to say about the online DVD rental market and competition from Blockbuster:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 24, 2005 at 11:09 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Netflix - 4Q04 earnings release and conference call detailed summary

Netflix' conference call was an opportunity for CEO Reed Hastings to assert that his company is in better shape than skeptics assume. Key points in detail:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 24, 2005 at 10:52 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Herb's hedge fund hero hates Netflix

Herb Greenberg, the super-star financial journalist who defected from TheStreet.com to MarketWatch, has been chatting with his unnamed hedge fund buddy again about Netflix, before the company reports tonight. Here's what he thinks will happen:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 24, 2005 at 03:33 PM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

More holiday online shopping data, with public company traffic data

As if you haven't had enough of this, comScore released its final numbers for online shopping during the holiday period. It now estimates that non-travel online retail grew 29% year over year, higher than its earlier estimates. Travel grew by 28%.

More interesting was its list of top traffic gainers (defined by average weekly unique users). Among the publicly traded companies, top gainers were:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 12, 2005 at 12:07 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: NFLX, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 10, 2005

Bezos on the movie rental business

Jeff Bezos comments on the online movie rental business in an interview with Wired editor Chris Anderson:

Q: What about videos? Netflix says it believes you're going to enter their rental-by-mail business.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 10, 2005 at 12:46 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Five Internet danger signs to watch for in 2005

The next few weeks will likely see a flurry of predictions for 2005, to the point where you'll be sick of reading them. So instead, I'm providing something which I hope will be more useful for investors in Internet stocks and managers of Internet companies: a checklist of danger signals for Internet investors to look out for next year. For each danger signal, I've specified which stocks will subsequently be at risk:

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Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 11:03 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: BFLY, ticker: CNET, ticker: CTRP, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (4)

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Short interest on Netflix looks uncomfortably high

December short interest was 19.1 million shares. Total float: 36.9 million shares.
Watch out.

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Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 02:36 PM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

Blockbuster cuts online movie rental fees again

Blockbuster announced that it is once again cutting the subscription price for its online rental service. This time the price falls by $2.50 to $14.99 a month plus tax, effective immediately. Blockbuster is guaranteeing the new price through January 2006.

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Posted by David Jackson on December 22, 2004 at 08:18 AM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Blockbuster (BBI) quietly cuts DVD rental prices again

The Motley Fool reports that Blockbuster has quietly cut the price on its standard 3-out-at-one-time monthly DVD subscription rate to $15.99 if customers sign up for six months of service.  Two points about this:

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Posted by David Jackson on November 9, 2004 at 12:10 PM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Netflix (NFLX) loses its future in a game of chicken

Netflix just traded its future for $1 per month per subscriber.  After Netflix announced it was cutting the price of its monthly movie rental service from $22 to $18, Blockbuster (BBI) countered with a price cut to $17.50 (including two coupons for in-store rentals).  Netflix failed to respond, and Blockbuster is now the low-price movie rental leader.  Netflix lost the game of chicken, and threw away its future.  Here’s why.

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Posted by David Jackson on November 2, 2004 at 12:11 PM in ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, October 15, 2004

A lesson in technology and Internet investing from Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix shocked investors this evening.  It announced that it expects Amazon to enter the online DVD rental market. Netflix therefore plans to delay its entry into the UK market, cut its monthly service fee from $22 to $18, and no longer expects to be profitable in 2005.  Investors dumped Netflix’ stock after this announcement, causing it to fall by 37%.

I think investors were wrong to own Netflix' stock before this announcement, and I think they’re wrong to dump it now.  The reasons are fundamental to technology and Internet investing.

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Posted by David Jackson on October 15, 2004 at 12:16 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)