Friday, July 22, 2005

Sell-side reaction to Google earnings (3) Derek Brown, Pacific Growth Equities (GOOG)

Derek Brown, Internet analyst for Pacific Growth Equities, analyses Google's (ticker: GOOG) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 22, 2005 at 04:13 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sell-side reaction to Google earnings (2) David Edwards, AmTech Research (GOOG)

David Edwards, Internet analyst for American Technology Research, analyses Google's (ticker: GOOG) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 22, 2005 at 04:10 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sell-side reaction to Google earnings (1) Mark Mahaney, Citigroup (GOOG)

Mark Mahaney, Internet analyst for Citigoup, analyses Google's (ticker: GOOG) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 22, 2005 at 04:01 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Yes, Google does give guidance (2Q05 GOOG conf call)

Google's (ticker: GOOG) conference calls are typically frustrating. Analysts ask sycophantic questions and the management team answers with platitudes and generalities totally devoid of useful information. But Google's Q2 call last night was the exception. There was a clear message about guidance, even though the company officially doesn't give guidance. Here it is, in the words of Google CFO George Reyes:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 22, 2005 at 11:12 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, July 21, 2005

Three take-aways from Google's earnings results (2Q05 GOOG earnings)

Three key take-away's from Google's (GOOG) earnings results:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 05:36 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Google beats, but not by enough to stop stock falling (2Q05 GOOG earnings results)

Google (ticker: GOOG) beat consensus estimates for both revenue and EPS, with revenue growing by 98% year over year. But expectations were high, and the stock fell by 7% in late trading. Here are the key points from Google's quarter, with comparisons to consensus estimates:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 05:09 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay versus Google (2Q05 conf call quotes, EBAY, GOOG)

eBay CEO Meg Whitman explicitly stated on her Q2 conf call what many already surmised: that eBay and Google compete directly. Excerpts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 02:07 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Yahoo implications for Google? (YHOO, GOOG)

Two sell-side analysts discussed the implications for Google (ticker: GOOG) of Yahoo's (ticker: YHOO) Q2 earnings results. Extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 20, 2005 at 04:16 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Yahoo discusses contextual advertising (2Q05 conf call quotes; YHOO, GOOG)

It's long been suspected that Yahoo (ticker: YHOO) is preparing a service to place contextually relevant ads on publishers' web sites; namely, a competitor to Google's (ticker: GOOG) AdSense For Publishers. Here are comments from Yahoo CEO Terry Semel on his Q2 conference call about search and contextual ads:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 20, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Google continues to gain market share (GOOG, MSFT, YHOO)

Citigroup Internet analyst Mark Mahaney sent a note to clients analysing the comScore June numbers. Short extract:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 19, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, July 15, 2005

Comscore June metrics - good news for Google and Time Warner? (GOOG, TWX, YHOO)

comScore's June numbers suggest that Google (ticker: GOOG) is outperforming Yahoo (ticker: YHOO), and Time Warner (ticker: TWX) is catching up. Here's an extract from American Technology Research analyst Dave Edwards' note to clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 15, 2005 at 10:25 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Large cap Internet quarterly preview (AMZN, EBAY, GOOG, YHOO)

What are sell-side expectations for the coming earnings season for Amazon, eBay, Google, and Yahoo? Here's an extract from Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney's note to clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 15, 2005 at 10:15 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Will Google acquire Chinese search company Baidu? (GOOG, BIDU)

From The China Stock Blog: Recent reports suggest that after completing its initial public offering Baidu (proposed ticker: BIDU) will be acquired by Google (ticker: GOOG). What does Baidu have to say about this? Here is a discussion of takeover provisions from Baidu's F-1:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 13, 2005 at 12:02 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: BIDU, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Will there be consolidation among the online ad networks? (FSTC, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, VCLK, YHOO)

There's an interesting debate occuring about the online ad networks. Online Journalism Review summarized the problems with Google's AdSense program and Yahoo's ContentMatch program. Jason Calacanis, founder of blog network Weblogs Inc., admits that most of his ad revenue is from brand ads, but still argues that contextual ads have no downside. He then wrote:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 13, 2005 at 11:25 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: FSTC, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Netflix offers ads, Answers.com more popular than Wikipedia? (NFLX, GRU)

Quick news/analysis:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 13, 2005 at 12:29 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: FSTC, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Jeff Mathews on Google (GOOG)

Hedge fund manager Jeff Mathews is always interesting, controversial and thought-provoking. Here's what he says about Google (ticker: GOOG) in his most recent article:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 12, 2005 at 12:17 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, July 08, 2005

China Internet search developments (GOOG, YHOO, SINA, Baidu)

From The China Stock Blog:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 8, 2005 at 12:09 PM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SINA, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, July 07, 2005

Google still gaining share, Yahoo losing? (GOOG, YHOO)

Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney sent his clients an analysis of comScore's May traffic data. Google (ticker: GOOG), he says, is gaining market share. Excerpts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 7, 2005 at 10:09 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Google insider selling (GOOG)

Michelle Leder, author of Footnoted.org, has a keen eye for noteworthy company filings. On Friday she wrote:

Today's the perfect day for a company to sneak something into the SEC late this afternoon: a summer holiday weekend and by the time the market reopens on Tuesday, nobody will remember whatever it was that was filed late on Friday. What will be? Your guess is as good as mine, since it's way too early to predict right now. But I can pretty much guarantee that something interesting will turn up in the Friday night dump.

Sure enough, today she reported that:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 5, 2005 at 10:27 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Friday, July 01, 2005

New Sina search engine plus a milestone for Google in China (SINA, SOHU, GOOG)

From Ezra Marbach at The China Stock Blog:  As I reported last week, Sina (ticker: SINA) has launched Internet search engine "iAsk". The announcement is more evidence of an increasingly competitive Chinese search environment and follows the introduction of Sohu's (ticker: SOHU) search engine Sogou earlier this year. More on Sina and other search developments:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 1, 2005 at 12:31 PM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SINA, ticker: SOHU | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Internet news/anaysis in brief (EBAY, GOOG, IACI, INSP, NFLX, OSTK, TSG, TZOO)

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Posted by David Jackson on June 29, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: INSP, ticker: NFLX, ticker: OSTK, ticker: TSG, ticker: TZOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, June 24, 2005

Will eBay's new merchant offerings be wrong-footed by Amazon, Yahoo and Google? (EBAY, AMZN, YHOO, GOOG)

eBay (ticker: EBAY) announced a service that helps merchants build online stores using technology from its Kurant acquisition. eBay will offer four versions with difffering levels of functionality and integration with eBay's auction site. All of them will charge merchants a monthly fee and commission on each sale.

But eBay may be making a mistake charging for this service. Reasons below.

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Posted by David Jackson on June 24, 2005 at 02:08 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Three must-read comments on The Internet Stock Blog

  1. Susan Kuchinskas (Jupiter Media analyst) on How much will Google Wallet impact eBay (GOOG, EBAY)?
  2. Tom Nelson on  GuruNet's Answers.com versus Wikipedia and widgets (GRU)
  3. Jason on  Netflix discusses downloadable movies (NFLX)

Posted by David Jackson on June 24, 2005 at 12:03 AM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, June 23, 2005

Six Apart adds contextual ads to blogs; Google will follow; but Yahoo? (GOOG, YHOO)

Six Apart sent an email to customers announcing the integration of Kanoodle contextual ads with its hosted blogging software product TypePad. This is clearly a sensible move for Six Apart, and probably presages a similar strategy from Google. But where does it leave Yahoo? Details and quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 23, 2005 at 12:15 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

AMC-Loews merger could shake up online movie ticketers Fandango and MovieTickets.com (HOLL, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, YHOO)

AMC Entertainment and Loews Cineplex, two of the largest movie theater chains, announced a merger deal yesterday. This deal has strong implications for the online movie ticket market, potentially nixing Fandango's IPO, strengthening Hollywood Media (ticker: HOLL), and also impacting Google, Time Warner, Microsoft and Yahoo. Details and analyis:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 23, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Hussman takes another shot at Google (GOOG)

John Hussman, manager of the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (ticker: HSGFX), took another shot at Google (ticker: GOOG) in his latest weekly letter. Extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 21, 2005 at 12:36 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2)

How much will Google Wallet impact eBay (GOOG, EBAY)?

The Wall Street Journal reported that Google (ticker: GOOG) is preparing a payment service to rival eBay's (ticker: EBAY) PayPal. Here are extracts from the reactions of two sell-side analysts:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 21, 2005 at 12:02 AM in Sub-sector: E-finance, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Google's positives (GOOG)

Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney re-initiated coverage report of Google on June 8th. Here's the section of his report titled "GOOG Investment Positives":

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Posted by David Jackson on June 16, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Google's valuation (GOOG)

John Hussman's argument that Google (ticker: GOOG) is worth no more than $40 a share will no doubt stimulate further debate about the stock's valuation. Here, for the sake of contrast, is the valuation section of Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney's June 8th report on Google, in which he justifies a Buy rating and $360 price target:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 15, 2005 at 05:01 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Four take-aways from the ComScore May traffic numbers (ASKJ, CNET, GOOG, IACI, MSFT, NYT, TWX, YHOO)

From American Technology Research analyst David Edwards note to clients (relevant to investors holding positions in ASKJ, CNET, GOOG, IACI, MSFT, NYT, TWX, YHOO):

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Posted by David Jackson on June 15, 2005 at 10:30 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NYT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Hussman: Google worth less than $40 per share (GOOG)

John Hussman's Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX, a mutual fund that uses options to hedge long positons) has the best risk-adjusted performance of any mutual fund.  That's why his weekly letter is worth reading. In the most recent, he argues that Google (ticker: GOOG) is worth no more than $40 per share. The relevant extract:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 15, 2005 at 10:24 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Real Networks on downloads (RNWK, IVIL, MNST, GOOG, TSCM)

Real Networks (ticker: RNWK) CEO Rob Glaser discussed his company's move into revenue generated by ad sales and download fees on his Q1 (May 4th) conference call. Download partners? Weather Channel and Google. Plus, he mentioned hiring execs with experience from Monster.com (ticker: MNST), iVillage (ticker: IVIL) and TheStreet.com (ticker: TSCM). Extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 14, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IVIL, ticker: MNST, ticker: RNWK, ticker: TSCM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, June 09, 2005

Career builder, Monster demolition? (MNST)

One of the fascinating aspects of Google's contextual ad service from a Web publisher's perspective is seeing which ads come up on your pages. Google recently began to place CPM-based ads (where the publisher gets paid for page views rather than clicks), and the result has been a plethora of new ads. One interesting take-away for 'Net stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 9, 2005 at 09:39 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MNST | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

What's up with GOOG?

So asks American Technology Research analyst David Edwards about Google (ticker: GOOG) in a note to clients. His answer:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 8, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Will Google end its relationship with Ask Jeeves? (GOOG, ASKJ, IACI, INSP)

Adware/Spyware expert Ben Edelman thinks that could happen. First, he outlines Google's (ticker: GOOG) role in providing ads that are used by toolbars:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 7, 2005 at 05:49 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: INSP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Scripps-Shopzilla deal shows eBay-SHOP deal too cheap?

Media company E.W. Scripps yesterday announced that it would purchase privately-held Shopzilla for $525 million in cash. Meanwhile, Shopping.com's (ticker: SHOP) stock yesterday traded above the $21 level at which eBay (ticker: EBAY) said it would acquire the company. Are the two related? Analysis and quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 7, 2005 at 08:51 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NYT, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, June 02, 2005

S&P downgrades Google to Hold (GOOG)

S&P analyst Scott Kessler on Google (ticker: GOOG):

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Posted by David Jackson on June 2, 2005 at 01:19 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

The Spitzer Internet Danger List - an update (AQNT, GOOG)

An earlier post on The Internet Stock Blog provided a list of stocks at risk from Eliot Spitzer's attack on the Adware/Spyware industry. One group with potential exposure: providers of paid search and affiliate ads, including FindWhat (ticker: FWHT), Yahoo/Overture (ticker: YHOO), CGI Holding (ticker: THK), ValueClick (ticker: VCLK), 24/7 Media (ticker: TFSM), Think Partership (ticker: THK) and LinkShare (partially owned by Internet Capital Group, ticker: ICGE).

Now research by Spyware legal expert Ben Edelman has expanded the list to cover other publicly-traded companies. They are:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on May 24, 2005 at 01:49 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: AQNT, ticker: DCLK, ticker: FSTC, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: ICGE, ticker: TFSM, ticker: THK, ticker: VCLK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (3)

Internet news/analysis in brief (ASKJ, CLCT, FWHT, GOOG, LOOK, NTRT, OSTK, TWX, VRSN)

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Posted by David Jackson on May 24, 2005 at 12:26 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NTRT, ticker: OSTK, ticker: TWX, ticker: VRSN, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, May 23, 2005

Dave Edwards on Yahoo and Google (YHOO, GOOG)

Mark Mahaney has moved from American Technology Research to Citigroup Smith Barney as the new Internet Analyst; his place is taken by Dave Edwards. Here's an extract from Dave's first note to clients about Yahoo (ticker: YHOO) and Google (ticker: GOOG):

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Posted by David Jackson on May 23, 2005 at 01:51 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Yahoo readies publisher tools to compete with Google (YHOO, GOOG)

Yahoo (ticker: YHOO) sent an email 20 minutes ago to web publishers interested in its upcoming contextual advertising products. (They'll compete with Google's AdSense for Publishers.) Here's the full text of the email followed by a quick comment:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 23, 2005 at 01:16 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

How real is Microsoft's browser threat to Google and Yahoo? (MSFT, GOOG, YHOO)

A looming threat to Google's search business is Microsoft's next release of its Internet Explorer browser. Why? Because Microsoft could build search into the browser in a convenient and compelling way, just as it's built into Firefox and Safari. In light of that, Joseph Nocera's NY Times article adds an important factor to the mix:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 23, 2005 at 12:11 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, May 20, 2005

Google takes aim at My Yahoo (GOOG, YHOO)

Google announced a beta version of a personalized home page. This is an important development because it dispels any final doubt that Google, Yahoo and MSN are truly on a collision course. Here's Google's announcement, three reactions to it and some quick analysis:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 20, 2005 at 05:13 PM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Search news/analysis in brief (AMZN, GOOG, SHOP, YHOO)

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Posted by David Jackson on May 19, 2005 at 12:06 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, May 16, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on May 16, 2005 at 10:33 AM in ticker: AMTD, ticker: ET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HLTH, ticker: IACI, ticker: MIX, ticker: NAPS, ticker: NFLX, ticker: RNWK, ticker: SCH, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX, ticker: WBMD, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Internet news/analysis quick links

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Posted by David Jackson on May 11, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: MCHX, ticker: MSFT, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Implications of Google's (GOOG) move to the Chinese mainland

From The China Stock Blog (permission granted):

Here are details of major developments for Google (ticker: GOOG) in China, and consequences for Internet search competitor Baidu.com:

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Posted by David Jackson on May 4, 2005 at 01:18 PM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Overstock switching auction marketing from TV to paid search

Overstock.com (ticker: OSTK) CEO Patrick Byrne discusses his company's auction business on his blog. eBay (ticker: EBAY) investors should read his comments about commitment to the auction business; and Google (ticker: GOOG) investors should read his remarks about switching marketing dollars from TV ads to paid search.

Here's the text (republished in full with the understanding that Mr Byrne would like his views made known):

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Posted by David Jackson on April 27, 2005 at 12:08 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, April 26, 2005

GOOG ducks a question on its conf call (1Q05 conf call quotes)

Google (ticker: GOOG) co-founder and President of Products Larry Page was asked by CIBC analyst Mike Gallant on GOOG's Q1 conference call when it expects its new product initiatives (such as Google News, Froogle and Gmail) to generate signficant amounts of revenue. Mr Page's reply:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 26, 2005 at 12:31 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, April 25, 2005

GOOG expands ad formats

Google (ticker: GOOG) emailed its content partners this evening to announce an upgrade to its contextual advertising offering. New ad formats offer greater control for advertisers and a wider choice of formats for publishers. Full text of the email:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 25, 2005 at 11:05 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sell-side reaction to GOOG's earnings

From American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney's note to clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 25, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 22, 2005

Three take-aways from GOOG's blow-out quarter (1Q05 earnings)

Google (ticker: GOOG) blew away consensus revenue and earnings estimates, driving the stock up almost 10% in late trading. Details, plus three key take-aways:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 22, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (3)

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Is YHOO overtaking GOOG in innovation?

Yahoo (ticker: YHOO) is aggressively implementing Really Simple Syndication (RSS) across its network, with the recent upgrade to Yahoo News and the introduction of RSS feeds for Yahoo Shopping. Geeks are beginning to argue that Google (ticker: GOOG) is becoming a technology laggard, behind Yahoo and (gasp!) Microsoft (ticker: MSFT). Details and a quick thought:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 19, 2005 at 01:25 AM in Sub-sector: Content, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 19, 2005 at 01:23 AM in ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: PCLN, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Become.com launches, Shopping.com wins AOL France

Three developments in the comparison shopping space:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 12, 2005 at 04:18 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (2)

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 12, 2005 at 03:11 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: NFLX, ticker: RCOM, ticker: SINA | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, April 11, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on April 11, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PRVD, ticker: RCOM, ticker: SRVY, ticker: TCOW, ticker: TWX, ticker: TZOO, ticker: VRSN, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 08, 2005

Seven implications of GOOG Q&A, and the threat to YHOO, ASKJ and GRU

Google (ticker: GOOG) announced that it now provides facts (in addition to links) in response to a search phrased as a question. For example, a search for "When did Bob Marley die?" returns the answer "11 May 1981" as the top result. This is a significant development for Google, Yahoo (ticker: YHOO), Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), Ask Jeeves (ticker: ASKJ) and its acquirer IAC (ticker: IACI), and GuruNet (ticker: GRU). Here's the Google announcement in full, followed by analysis and stock impact:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 8, 2005 at 04:09 PM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack (1)

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 5, 2005 at 10:29 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: JUPM, ticker: TSG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, April 03, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 3, 2005 at 12:14 AM in ticker: FSTC, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NTRT, ticker: RATE, ticker: RCOM, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TFSM, ticker: TWX, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 01, 2005

Google takes on Yahoo Finance

Google (ticker: GOOG) quietly announced that it now offers financial data in response to a search for a stock ticker. A Google search for "AMTD", for example, now returns a real-time and delayed stock quote, a chart, market cap, price high/low, and trading volume and average volume. Market data are also available from Google SMS, by sending a text message to 46645 ('GOOGL') with the ticker. This is further evidence of two critical investing trends in the search and content markets:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 1, 2005 at 01:09 PM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 31, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on March 31, 2005 at 12:23 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: KNOT, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NILE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

WebSideStory bounced around by Google acquisition

WebSideStory's stock (ticker: WSSI) has bounced around over the last couple of days in reaction to Google's (ticker: GOOG) acquisition of web analytics firm Urchin Software. Does the Google purchase validate WSSI's business or dramatically increase competition?

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Posted by David Jackson on March 30, 2005 at 10:57 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: WSSI | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Short interest jumps for FLWS, HOMS, LOOK and NILE

Short interest data is now available for Nasdaq stocks through March 15th. Short interest has rocketed for some internet stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 30, 2005 at 10:25 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: PCLN, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 25, 2005

Five implications of the YHOO vs GOOG email war

Yahoo (ticker: YHOO) upgraded the storage capacity of its free web email accounts to 1 GB, equal Google's (ticker: GOOG) Gmail. Five implications:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 25, 2005 at 01:07 AM in Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Net stocks now lead, but GOOEY or GERQY?

ThinkEquity's Michael Moe argues that the US economy is now dependent on the health of Internet companies rather than industrial companies like GM:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 25, 2005 at 12:53 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 24, 2005

Take-aways from a visit to GuruNet

After a visit to GuruNet and a conversation with its CEO Bob Rosenschein, American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney sent the following to his clients outlining two implications for Google (ticker: GOOG), Yahoo! (ticker: YHOO) and MSN (Microsoft - ticker: MSFT):

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 24, 2005 at 06:19 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GRU, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, March 21, 2005

Google announces new AdSense features

Google just sent the following email, announcing new features for its contextual advertising service, to its AdSense publisher customers:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 21, 2005 at 06:35 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, March 20, 2005

IACI to purchase ASKJ, plus news/analysis in brief

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 20, 2005 at 09:49 PM in ticker: AMTD, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: GSIC, ticker: IACI, ticker: MAMA, ticker: MNST, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: SHOP, ticker: UBET, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Seven implications of Yahoo! 360

Yahoo! announced the launch of Yahoo! 360, an integrated suite that includes web email, instant messaging, blogs, photo sharing, and music downloads. Here's a clip from Yahoo's press release, followed by analysis - a list of seven implications:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 17, 2005 at 07:00 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Competition and The Long Tail

Wired editor Chris Anderson's discussion of The Long Tail is important, but investors in Internet stocks need to analyze the impact carefully.

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Posted by David Jackson on March 15, 2005 at 04:26 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (4)

Monday, March 14, 2005

WSJ on YHOO competitor to GOOG AdSense

The Wall Street Journal (finally!) reports today that "Yahoo Inc. plans to introduce a system to broker online advertisements for small and midsize Web publishers, according to people familiar with the matter."

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Posted by David Jackson on March 14, 2005 at 12:18 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 10, 2005

China Internet search developments

Points of interest about Sohu (ticker: SOHU), Baidu.com, Zhongsou.com, Yahoo! China (ticker: YHOO), and Google (ticker: GOOG):

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 10, 2005 at 09:10 AM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SOHU, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

GOOG on Google versus Yahoo (quotes from an investor conf)

Google CEO Eric Schmidt faced a series of lame and sycophantic questions from analyst Alexia Quadrani at the Bear Stearns Media Conference. (The big sell-side firms still don't understand how to run conferences effectively.) As a result, most of his comments were a rehash of old material. But here's what he said about the difference between Google and Yahoo!:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 10, 2005 at 08:21 AM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

GOOG UNDER THREAT: YHOO subdomain confirms competing service to AdSense

Yahoo has effectively confirmed that it will soon introduce a competitor to Google's AdSense (contextually placed keyword ads) for publishers program. This is highly significant for both YHOO and GOOG, and investors in both companies should take careful note. The proof of Yahoo's imminent new service?

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 9, 2005 at 01:20 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

How much was HOLL's contract with GOOG for movie showtimes worth? (Quotes from the 3Q04 conf call)

Hollywood Media (ticker: HOLL) CEO Mitch Rubenstein discussed his company's movie data business on his Q3 conference call in November. That was before the roll-out of Google Movies, which is powered by HOLL's movie showtime listings. Note his comment about the value of "new large contracts" in negotiation - a clue to the value of the GOOG deal?

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Posted by David Jackson on March 9, 2005 at 08:42 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

YHOO readies competitor to GOOG AdSense

Multiple reports confirm that Yahoo! (ticker: YHOO) is preparing a competing service to Google's AdSense. AdSense is a fully automated contextual advertising program for publishers that has been remarkably successful in attracting small Web publishers.  Details and implications:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 8, 2005 at 01:16 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Search developments in brief

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 8, 2005 at 07:52 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, March 06, 2005

February short interest

Short interest in Nasdaq stocks rose by 6.3% month over month in February. But short interest for Nasdaq Internet stocks rose by more: on a basket of 25 Internet stocks tracked by American Technology Research, short interest  rose by 10.4%. Details:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 6, 2005 at 07:41 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ELNK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 04, 2005

Business Week's odd take on GOOG and YHOO

Business Week's Ben Elgin asks whether Google (ticker: GOOG) is "a $50 Billion One-Trick Pony". Here are the five key points from the article followed by some comments that question its conclusion:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 4, 2005 at 02:39 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Under the hood of Google Movies - implications for GOOG and other stocks

Within hours of Google's announcement, its new movie search service received rave reviews from a lot of people. But investors and those wishing to understand the implications for Google and the other Internet companies need to dig deeper:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 4, 2005 at 12:43 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NYT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

How big a problem is click-fraud?

According to The Times of India, "A growing number of housewives, college graduates, and even working professionals across metropolitan cities are rushing to click paid Internet ads to make $100 to $200... per month". Investors in search and advertising stocks had better understand the scope of the click-fraud problem. Some thoughts:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 2, 2005 at 07:20 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: MAMA, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, February 26, 2005

Sell-side attacks, defends prospects for paid search

Late last week, following FindWhat's results and conference call (which included an unusual attack on Google and Yahoo!), RBC Capital Markets published a note claiming that the paid search market was weakening. The evidence? Falling prices for keyword ads. In response, Mark Mahaney of American Technology Research wrote the following to his clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 26, 2005 at 08:15 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, February 24, 2005

FindWhat.com (FWHT) attacks Google (GOOG) and Overture (YHOO) on conference call (quotes from the 4Q04 conf call)

FindWhat (ticker: FWHT) CEO Craig Pisaris-Henderson made a controversial comment on his fourth quarter earnings results conference call about Google (ticker: GOOG) and Overture (owned by Yahoo!, ticker: YHOO). Here it is:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 24, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

The future of comparison shopping

Sean O'Rourke, author of the Organized Shopping Blog, writes his thougths and questions on the future of comparison shopping. This is a must-read for anyone interested in Shopping.com, Google's Froogle, Yahoo Shopping, MSN Shopping, and ValueClick's entry into comparison shopping. Here are his thoughts in full:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 08:52 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Microsoft launches MSN Shopping beta

Microsoft launched the beta of MSN Shopping, with strengthened comparison shopping tools. Competitors: Yahoo! Shopping, Shopping.com, Google's Froogle and ValueClick. Microsoft's Andrew Ma asked for feedback, and Sean O'Rourke provided it, concluding that:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, February 18, 2005

NY Times discusses About.com acquisition (quotes from the conf call)

NY Times CEO Janet Robinson, EVP Digital Ops Martin Nisenholz and CFO Len Forman discuss their company's acquisition of About.com for $410 million:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 18, 2005 at 12:41 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NYT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Internet developments in brief

Quick links to news stories and analysis of relevance to Internet investors:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 18, 2005 at 12:12 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MCHX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Will GOOG and YHOO's contextual advertising businesses continue to grow?

Google and Yahoo (Overture) have built significant businesses providing contextual ads to Web sites. Here are two radically different views of the prospects for Google's AdSense and Yahoo's Overture contextual ad businesses:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 15, 2005 at 06:59 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, February 14, 2005

Google (GOOG) confounds the amateur stock pundits

Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed nails Google's stock action today:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 14, 2005 at 10:21 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

New stats on Firefox market share good for Google, bad for Microsoft, less clear for Yahoo!

Janco Associates released its First Quarter 2005 Browser Market Share Study showing that Firefox now has 4.5% market share and Microsoft Internet Explorer's market share has now fallen to 84.9%. But the situation for IE might be worse than that.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 14, 2005 at 09:13 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, February 13, 2005

7 reasons Google will rule the world

Paul Allen, managing partner of VC firm Infobase Ventures, reacts to Google's Q4 financial results by listing the reasons why he thinks Google is fundamentally superior to its competitors. Here they are in summary, plus a quick comment:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 13, 2005 at 12:56 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, February 11, 2005

Why is Google a domain registrar, and what's the impact on Register.com (RCOM)?

Google recently became a domain name registrar, increasing the threat of increased competition to Register.com (ticker: RCOM). But now Google seems to be saying that it might not get into the domain name registration business:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 11, 2005 at 09:51 AM in Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: GOOG, ticker: RCOM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, February 10, 2005

Five-point summary of Google's analyst day

A five bullet-point summary of Google's analyst day from InsideGoogle and GoogleBlogscoped:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 10, 2005 at 11:11 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

A sell-side analyst's thoughts on Google's analyst day

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney attended Google's analyst day yesterday. His reaction:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 10, 2005 at 10:17 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Google maps: search companies and portals on collision course

Google released a beta version of Google maps. Surprise, surprise - it's terrific. As with Gmail, Google just seems to do things better. But instead of focusing on the individual application, investors need to step back and see the big picture: search companies and portals/content comanies are on a collison course. Why, and what are the stock implications?

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Posted by David Jackson on February 9, 2005 at 04:25 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Google, Yahoo, AOL, Ask Jeeves bid for About.com

The NY Times reports (free registration required) that Primedia's About.com unit is for sale, and final bids are due Tuesday. About.com was purchased by Primedia for $690 million in 2000. Here's a list of the (reported) bidders, and three quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 8, 2005 at 08:46 AM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, February 07, 2005

Ah! So this is why Shopping.com is entering the financial services vertical.

Bankrate made the following point on its Q4 earnings call:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 7, 2005 at 03:48 PM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Time Warner (TWX) holds 5 million shares of Google

In its 8-K report, Time Warner revealed that it holds over 5 million shares of Google stock valued at $980 million. 

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Posted by David Jackson on February 7, 2005 at 02:15 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: TWX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Provide Commerce (PRVD) on online marketing (quotes from the conf call)

Provide Commerce (ticker: PRVD) has some interesting things to say about online marketing on its conference call:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 7, 2005 at 01:06 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: PRVD, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

NY Times on Internet retailing

The NY Times has a perplexing survey of the Internet retailing stocks in its Sunday business section. The article, Is Online Retailing a Victim of Its Own Success?, argues that online retailing is growing fast, but the outlook for the stocks is uncertain.

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Posted by David Jackson on February 7, 2005 at 08:35 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

AmTech Research says buy GOOG. Buy. BUYYYY!

Here's what American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney has to say about Google this morning, after last night's Q4 earnings release:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 2, 2005 at 08:23 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Google generates dramatic profit growth, but eats into partners' income

Google's stock rose by almost 10% to $210 in late trading after the company reported Q4 results that beat analysts' estimates. Here are the key numbers from Google's results and some brief comments about the sources of Google's income:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 2, 2005 at 01:49 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Google (GOOG) on search and contextual advertising (quotes from the conf call)

Google talked about search traffic growth, its contextual advertising business, local search, desktop search and traffic acquisition costs on its Q4 earnings conference call tonight. Here are some key quotes:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 1, 2005 at 07:20 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Forrester says MSN will take share from GOOG

Forrester's Charlene Liu predicts that MSN will take market share from Google. The reason:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 1, 2005 at 05:48 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Google now a domain registrar

So Google, it seems, is now a domain registrar. (Via Google Blogscoped and Netcraft.) Incremental stock impact:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 1, 2005 at 01:20 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: RATE | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

As search engines add proprietary content, what are the implications?

Recent announcements have strong implications for the search business:

  • Microsoft announced the full release of its search service today.
  • Google announced that it would offer search of movie scripts and is planning to offer search of books stocked by major libraries.
  • Amazon.com announced that its A9 search engine will offer street-level photographs as part of its local search.
  • Yahoo! announced that in future it will provide its own financial data instead of relying on outside vendors, and will syndicate that data to other web sites.

Here's a quick recap of Amazon's announcement, then a brief discussion of what's going on in the search market and the implications for investors.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 1, 2005 at 07:03 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 24, 2005

Search and browser markets intertwined? Here's the proof.

Understanding the relationship between the pay-per-click advertising market (particularly paid search) and the browser market is critical for investors. Four issues illustrate the intersection of the two markets:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 24, 2005 at 07:01 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, January 23, 2005

Search briefs

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Posted by David Jackson on January 23, 2005 at 08:45 PM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Firefox adoption rockets in January; good or bad for Google and Yahoo?

Analytics firm WebSideStory reported (story via CRN) that as of January 14th, Firefox has 5% of the Web brower market, a full 1 percentage point higher than in early December. Firefox's adoption rate in the U.S. almost tripled during the last month, and as a result Microsoft's share is now on the cusp of falling through the 90% mark.

Now, it's obvious that the spread of Firefox is negative for Microsoft. But what about Google and Yahoo!? Here's are some points to consider:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 11:07 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2)

Click-fraud and the search engine stocks

Click-fraud is becoming increasingly problematic for the search companies. Look at this comment from Google's CFO at an investor conference:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 11:06 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Chinese search engine market grows in 2004

Asia Pulse, citing a recent report, claims that China's search engine market reached 940 million yuan ($113.6 million) in 2004. The market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 60-70% and reach 2.6 billion yuan by 2006.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 08:56 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NTES, ticker: SOHU, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

European e-shopping could favor ECST, NILE, OSTK, REDE more than AMZN, EBAY

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that savy Europeans are taking advantage of their strong currencies by shopping from U.S. online retailers. The article mentions Amazon as a potential beneficiary. But here's a point to consider for investors in e-tail stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 11:40 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IBUY, ticker: NILE, ticker: REDE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Five Google-related data points from Yahoo!'s conf call

Here are five data points from Yahoo!'s conference call relevant to investors in Google:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 12:17 AM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 17, 2005

Yahoo to acquire Six Apart?

Six Apart, the owner of hosted blogging service TypePad and publisher of blogging software Movable Type, just acquired LiveJournal. Within six months Six Apart itself will be acquired by Yahoo!.

Here's why.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 17, 2005 at 08:30 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (18) | TrackBack (40)

Are job listings an indicator of growth?

...because if they are, then Shopping.com is growing faster than Yahoo! Shopping and Froogle. (Well, we already knew that Froogle isn't doing as well as the other two because of its inferior functionality.) Here are the job listings numbers:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 17, 2005 at 12:02 AM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 14, 2005

IBuyDigital.com files for IPO and 5 reasons why YouMightNotBuyThis.com

Online consumer electronics retailer iBuyDigital.com just filed an S-1; underwriters are Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. and Oppenheimer and Co. The proposed ticker is IBUY. Here's a quick overview of the filing, five reasons why you should be careful of this IPO, and implications for other stocks including ECST, OSTK, SHOP, YHOO and GOOG.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 14, 2005 at 10:00 AM in ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IBUY, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Keynote says YHOO and MSN search experience catching up with GOOG. Yawn.

Here's the Keynote press release. Though widely publicized, there seems to be absolutely no incremental news in it. Yahoo! and MSN getting better, Google still has best customer experience, local search still rudimentary... yawn. If you find something that I missed, leave a comment.

With research like this, maybe Keynote should get into the sell-side research business. In fact, it could buy IRG from TheStreet.com.  :-)

Posted by David Jackson on January 13, 2005 at 03:07 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: KEYN, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Business Week article on desktop search underestimates risk to GOOG, YHOO and ASKJ

Following Yahoo!'s release of its desktop search earlier this week, Business Week now asks: Can Desktop Search Find Profits? It's answer: desktop search is a step on the road to the holy grail of search, namely universal search. (Search everything from one place.) But in the short run, there's no money it.

Wrong.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 12, 2005 at 10:54 PM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

IE security bugs bad for Microsoft, but potentially bad for Google as well

Danish security firm Secunia recently made a widely publicized announcement of a security vulnerability in Internet Explorer which it classified as "Extremely Critical". Secunia suggested changes to IE's settings and a series of patches to download, but still views these as only a "partial fix". Microsoft followed by admitting that the vulnerabilities were "critical", and releasing patches in its monthly security update. However, two other solutions are available:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 12, 2005 at 12:01 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

DoubleClick says search engine keyword ad prices up 23% in December

DoubleClick released data gathered by Performics, its search engine marketing division, about December pay-per-click (PPC) ads. The most important data point:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 12, 2005 at 11:31 AM in ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Keyword pricing up 24% sequentially in fourth quarter

Media Post's Media Daily News says:

Search engine advertisers on average paid 24 percent more for keywords in the fourth quarter than they did at the end of September 2004, according to estimates being released today by Fathom Online. The price hike, one of the steepest since Fathom began publishing its so-called Keyword Price Index (KPI) earlier this year, may have been influenced by increased demand during the fourth quarter holiday marketing season, or it may have simply been organic price inflation as more advertisers enter the marketplace and increase their bids for top placements on search engines.

Trend: this is consistent with 1-800-Flowers.com's earnings miss yesterday likely due to higher PPC marketing expenses.

Posted by David Jackson on January 11, 2005 at 12:27 AM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 10, 2005

FLWS miss points to rising PPC ad prices

1-800-flowers.com missed numbers for the December quarter because of higher than expected marketing expenses. In its press release, the company stated:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 10, 2005 at 11:01 AM in ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 07, 2005

Technology Review highlights fragility of Google's competitive position

The January 2005 edition of the Technology Review contains a detailed article by Charles Ferguson called What's Next For Google? Ferguson argues that Google's competitive position is tenuous. In his words:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 7, 2005 at 12:10 AM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

New SideStep web site threatens online travel companies

Travel search engine company SideStep released a web-based version of its travel search covering flights, rental cars and hotels, at SideStep.com. (Story via ClickZ here.) SideStep plans to make money by selling ads next to search results. It has a pay-per-click (PPC) deal with Overture (owned by Yahoo!) and also plans to sell its own PPC and graphical cost-per-page-impression (CPM) ads.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 5, 2005 at 01:49 PM in Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: CD, ticker: CTRP, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

IBM to enter the online ad market?

Google, Microsoft and Yahoo all recently filed new search-related patents. But so did IBM, Phillips and Xerox. Nathan Weinberg comments:

The most interesting one? Easily IBM’s filing for “System and method for dynamically optimizing a banner advertisement to counter competing advertisements“. What the system does is analyze a page and detect ads. Then it matches those ads against a database of the client’s competitor’s ads, and reformats the client’s ad to better compete against those ads. Brilliant!

He adds:

If IBM is planning on getting into the online ad game (and this patent is a big hint), this is exactly the million dollar idea any company needs to succeed.

Interesting. IBM's work on search was recently described in a NY Times article (free subscription required).

Posted by David Jackson on January 5, 2005 at 01:33 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: MAMA, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 03, 2005

Firefox good or bad for ad click rates?

German online advertising company Adtech reported that Firefox users click on fewer ads than Internet Explorer users. In aggregate, 0.11% of Firefox users clicked on ads, versus 0.5% of IE users. (Info via this CNET story.) This is potentially worrying for Internet advertising (including search) companies and their investors, because Firefox is taking market share from IE. So what's happening?

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Posted by David Jackson on January 3, 2005 at 03:57 PM in ticker: AQNT, ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Goldman moves GOOG and YHOO, but should it?

Goldman analyst Anthony Noto raised his price targets today for Google and Yahoo. A Goldman report states:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 3, 2005 at 12:18 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Briefs updates on search, with implications

- Robin Good estimates that non-Microsoft browsers now have 30% share of the browser market  (Firefox has 20%), and that by the end of '05 Internet Explorer will no longer be the browser of choice for the majority of Internet users.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 3, 2005 at 12:01 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: MAMA, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Five Internet danger signs to watch for in 2005

The next few weeks will likely see a flurry of predictions for 2005, to the point where you'll be sick of reading them. So instead, I'm providing something which I hope will be more useful for investors in Internet stocks and managers of Internet companies: a checklist of danger signals for Internet investors to look out for next year. For each danger signal, I've specified which stocks will subsequently be at risk:

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Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 11:03 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: BFLY, ticker: CNET, ticker: CTRP, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (4)

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Home Depot entry to online appliance sales should help search and comparison shopping firms

Reuters reports that Home Depot has begun selling appliances online, with free shipping and a guarantee that prices will be the same as in its stores, with no regional variation. Home Depot has been slow to offer online sales of appliances. According to the Reuters story, Sears began offering appliances online in 1999 and Lowe's in 2000. Home Depot is now playing catch-up aggressively: its home page now features appliances, with the tag line "1,000s of Appliances - Now Available Online".

Of note to Internet investors:

  1. The purchase of high-priced appliances online will boost online retail numbers, but will likely come at the expense of purchases from physical stores.
  2. This is incrementally positive for search companies Google and Yahoo!, as demand for appliance-related key words (and probably their price) will rise as more companies enter the online market.
  3. The time and effort of comparison shopping makes greatest sense for large purchases. The expansion of the online appliance market is therefore incrementally positive for the comparison shopping businesses run by Google, Yahoo! and Shopping.com, as well as private companies Nextag, PriceGrabber and Shopzilla.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm long SHOP.

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 02:18 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

PPC marketing costs to rise for online travel companies?

ClickZ reports that travel search engine Kayak.com is planning a large advertising campaign for early next year, in which it will purchase pay-per-click ads from Google and Overture.

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Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 07:01 AM in Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: CD, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Firefox downloads good for Google

Newsfactor reports that the free Firefox 1.0 browser has been downloaded over 13 million times since its release in November. That's good for Google, since Firefox has Google as the default search service in a highly usable embedded window in the browser.

I've already argued that Google needs to establish itself in client software before Microsoft embeds MSN search more effectively in Internet Explorer. Investors probably underestimate the risk to Google's search advertising business.

Posted by David Jackson on December 28, 2004 at 10:47 AM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Can you say "frothy"?

Barron's Mark Veverka has a short retrospective (subcription required) of what happened to tech stocks in 2004, which he sums up in one word: Google. "Why all the fuss?" about Google, he asks.

Answer: The return of the 50-plus price-earnings multiple. Recently, Google was trading at 183.75; Yahoo! at 36.66 and Ask Jeeves (which you could have bought at 2 in 2003) at 25.62. At those prices, each boasted a ludicrous price-earnings ratio, based on its expected next-fiscal-year earnings. For Google, it was 54, for Yahoo!, 73, and for Ask Jeeves, 19 . Do you know anybody who even visits Ask.com?

And he later summarizes his views of these stocks with one question: "Can you say "frothy"?"

Posted by David Jackson on December 28, 2004 at 12:12 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, December 25, 2004

Three lessons from the Google Zeitgeist

Google's press center just published its Zeitgeist 2004, a summary of the most popular searches in 2004. This is important reading, despite the fact that's it's backward-looking. Here are three key points from the Google data:

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Posted by David Jackson on December 25, 2004 at 11:44 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: LOOK, ticker: OSTK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, December 24, 2004

Is Amazon being hurt by comparison shopping?

Since comparison shopping sites make it easy to find the best prices on a product, they'll drive traffic to the cheapest stores with the best service and reputations. Traffic to the comparison shopping sites is up sharply this year: Nextag reported a 70% increase in year over year traffic, Shopping.com announced that it expects revenues to rise by over 30% this quarter, and traffic to Yahoo! Shopping and Froogle are also strong.

So owners of Amazon stock need to know whether Amazon is benefitting or losing from this trend, particularly since comparison shopping is growing in popularity.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 24, 2004 at 01:58 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Thursday, December 23, 2004

Web email battle heats up as AOL enters

Newsfactor reports that AOL plans to introduce free web email in 2005. According to the story, an AOL spokesperson has confirmed that it has already started "beta testing the new version of AOL Mail on the Web for a select number of members". But the big news is that in 2005 AOL Mail will be offered to non-AOL subscribers too.

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Posted by David Jackson on December 23, 2004 at 05:53 PM in ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, December 21, 2004

PayPal founder says Internet stocks are "badly overvalued"

Peter Thiel, founder of PayPal who now works for Clarion Capital, says in an interview with Bambi Francisco on CBS MarketWatch that Internet stocks are now "badly overvalued". Why? Stocks have risen dramatically in the last few months, insiders are selling, and positive Internet trends are already priced-in. He also believes that the expensing of stock options next year will hit reported earnings of Internet stocks.

He specifically mentions Google and eBay as stocks that could perform poorly next year.

To put this in context, Thiel is a bear on almost everything other than the Internet. He thinks there's a property bubble in the U.S., believes oil will hit $80 to $90 per barrel, is bearish on the dollar, and thinks the U.S is headed for deflation. He's still investing in early stage Internet companies, though.

Posted by David Jackson on December 21, 2004 at 02:38 PM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

DoubleClick/Nielsen survey may imply comparison shopping surprise

DoubleClick released the results of a survey it commissioned from Nielsen / NetRatings. Yup, yet another online holiday shopping survey. So instead of summarizing the unsurprising results (online shopping is growing faster than offline shopping - dah!), here's the more interesting part:

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Posted by David Jackson on December 21, 2004 at 11:19 AM in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: DCLK, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MAMA, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Click-fraud & the public Internet companies

Two recent Internet conferences (Majestic's and Jupiter's) highlighted the growing problem of click-fraud. Speakers described how companies are hiring other people to click repeatedly on pay-per-click ads from their competitors. But nobody mentioned that the problem is far more acute with public companies. In fact, individuals can directly impact the financial results of public companies without it costing them a penny.

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Posted by David Jackson on December 15, 2004 at 11:39 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: ECST, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: MAMA, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, September 27, 2004

Google's browser

Will Google be forced to re-ignite the browser wars? argued that Google will lose it's search business overnight when Microsoft builds more effective search into Internet Explorer.  Unless Google can persuade enough users to adopt non-Microsoft browsers.

Well, looks like Google is working on just that.  The New York Post reported that Google has hired a browser team, and a slashdot posting reveals that Google has registered the domain Gbrowser.com.

Posted by David Jackson on September 27, 2004 at 02:54 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, September 23, 2004

Google's future is not what you think

Summary: Google's contextual advertising business has far better growth prospects than its search business.

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Posted by David Jackson on September 23, 2004 at 02:52 PM in ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Will Google be forced to re-ignite the browser wars?

Summary: The future of Google's search business depends on users adopting non-Microsoft web browsers.

Sell-side research analysts and buy-side hedge fund and mutual fund managers seem to agree on one thing about Google: its search business is great, while its contextual advertising business is worrying.  Why?  Because search has much higher gross margins.  Google pays web site owners (like me) a large cut every time someone clicks on a Google ad.  But on its own search site, Google pockets all the profit.  And as Google's contextual advertising business has grown from zero, it has dragged down Google's aggregate gross margin.  Search good; contextual advertising bad.

I think the opposite is true.  In fact, it's Google's search business that is far riskier from a portfolio manager's perspective.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on September 15, 2004 at 02:55 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)