Thursday, July 21, 2005

Sell-side reaction to eBay earnings (3) Derek Brown, Pacific Growth Equities (EBAY)

Derek Brown, Internet analyst for Pacific Growth Equities, analyses eBay's (ticker: EBAY) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 06:03 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sell-side reaction to eBay earnings (2) David Edwards, AmTech Research (EBAY)

David Edwards, Internet analyst for American Technology Research, analyses eBay's (ticker: EBAY) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 05:56 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sell-side reaction to eBay earnings (1) Mark Mahaney, Citigroup (EBAY)

Mark Mahaney, Internet analyst for Citigoup, analyses eBay's (ticker: EBAY) Q2 earnings results; key extracts:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 05:49 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay in China versus local competitors (EBAY)

Key points from eBay's conference call about its business in China, with comparable info from eBay's Chinese competitors:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 04:39 PM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay discusses PayPal China (2Q05 conf call quotes, EBAY)

eBay CEO Meg Whitman on PayPal's China launch:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 02:19 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: E-finance, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay versus Google (2Q05 conf call quotes, EBAY, GOOG)

eBay CEO Meg Whitman explicitly stated on her Q2 conf call what many already surmised: that eBay and Google compete directly. Excerpts:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 02:07 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay relief rally and short covering drives stock up 15% (EBAY)

eBay's (ticker: EBAY) Q2 results and guidance were ahead of consensus, triggering a relief rally and short covering among investors concerned that eBay's growth would slow. Quick summary of Q2 results and guidance:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 21, 2005 at 08:35 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, July 15, 2005

Large cap Internet quarterly preview (AMZN, EBAY, GOOG, YHOO)

What are sell-side expectations for the coming earnings season for Amazon, eBay, Google, and Yahoo? Here's an extract from Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney's note to clients:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 15, 2005 at 10:15 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, July 08, 2005

EBAY launches PayPal service in China (EBAY)

From The China Stock Blog: Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported (subscription required) that eBay (ticker: EBAY) would launch its online payment service PayPal in China by the end of the year. And today, it finally happened! You can access PayPal China here. PayPal China will compete with Alibaba's Alipay which reportedly had 2.4 million registered users as of early June 2005.

Posted by David Jackson on July 8, 2005 at 12:11 PM in Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: E-finance, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, July 04, 2005

Bankrate's a short, says Sy Jacobs (RATE)

This weekend's Barron's contains an interview with Sy Jacobs, who manages a long-short hedge fund focused on financial stocks. Acccording to the article (paid subscription required), Jacobs' fund has delivered 17.1% annually since its inception and 14% after fees so far this year. He argues that Bankrate (ticker: RATE) is a short. His key points:

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Posted by David Jackson on July 4, 2005 at 12:09 AM in Sub-sector: E-finance, ticker: EBAY, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Internet news/anaysis in brief (EBAY, GOOG, IACI, INSP, NFLX, OSTK, TSG, TZOO)

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 29, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: INSP, ticker: NFLX, ticker: OSTK, ticker: TSG, ticker: TZOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Datapoints from eBay Live (EBAY)

From Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney's June 24th note to clients about eBay (ticker: EBAY):

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Posted by David Jackson on June 28, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, June 24, 2005

Comparison shopping companies exploiting Adware? (EBAY, SHOP)

Jeff Molander of ReveNews says that comparison shopping sites are partnering with Adware operators, with the result that e-tailers are either paying for traffic that would have been free or are losing sales. "Traffic is "stolen" from your URL", he says, "... and then... if you want that user back.. you pay". Quick comment below.

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Posted by David Jackson on June 24, 2005 at 02:38 PM in Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Will eBay's new merchant offerings be wrong-footed by Amazon, Yahoo and Google? (EBAY, AMZN, YHOO, GOOG)

eBay (ticker: EBAY) announced a service that helps merchants build online stores using technology from its Kurant acquisition. eBay will offer four versions with difffering levels of functionality and integration with eBay's auction site. All of them will charge merchants a monthly fee and commission on each sale.

But eBay may be making a mistake charging for this service. Reasons below.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 24, 2005 at 02:08 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, June 23, 2005

Six Apart adds contextual ads to blogs; Google will follow; but Yahoo? (GOOG, YHOO)

Six Apart sent an email to customers announcing the integration of Kanoodle contextual ads with its hosted blogging software product TypePad. This is clearly a sensible move for Six Apart, and probably presages a similar strategy from Google. But where does it leave Yahoo? Details and quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 23, 2005 at 12:15 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

eBay discusses comparison shopping

eBay (ticker: EBAY) CFO Rajiv Dutta presented at the Deutsche Bank Securities Media Conference on June 8th. Here's what he had to say about eBay's acquisition of Shopping.com (ticker: SHOP):

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Posted by David Jackson on June 22, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

How much will Google Wallet impact eBay (GOOG, EBAY)?

The Wall Street Journal reported that Google (ticker: GOOG) is preparing a payment service to rival eBay's (ticker: EBAY) PayPal. Here are extracts from the reactions of two sell-side analysts:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 21, 2005 at 12:02 AM in Sub-sector: E-finance, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

E.W Scripps discusses comparison shopping (SSP, SHOP)

After E.W Scripps' (ticker: SSP) announcement of its intention to purchase comparison shopping company Shopzilla (formerly Bizrate), CEO Ken Lowe and CFO Joe NeCastro hosted a conference call with analysts. Interesting reading, given eBay's (ticker: EBAY) prior announcement to acquire competitor Shopping.com (ticker: SHOP). Extracts:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 8, 2005 at 05:00 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Chairman and Chief Product Officer of Shopzilla on Shopzilla vs Shopping.com (SHOP)

Farhad Mohit is the Chairman and Chief Product Officer of Shopzilla, a comparison shopping search service that competes with Shopping.com (ticker: SHOP). Here are his thoughts in response to Scripps-Shopzilla deal shows eBay-SHOP deal too cheap? (published yesterday morning on the The Internet Stock Blog) which argued that eBay (ticker: EBAY) may be forced to raise its bid for SHOP:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 8, 2005 at 12:02 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (3)

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Scripps-Shopzilla deal shows eBay-SHOP deal too cheap?

Media company E.W. Scripps yesterday announced that it would purchase privately-held Shopzilla for $525 million in cash. Meanwhile, Shopping.com's (ticker: SHOP) stock yesterday traded above the $21 level at which eBay (ticker: EBAY) said it would acquire the company. Are the two related? Analysis and quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 7, 2005 at 08:51 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NYT, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, June 06, 2005

What eBay could learn from Craigslist (EBAY)

Randall Stross' article (free registration required) in the Sunday NY Times about eBay (ticker: EBAY) and Craigslist is worth reading. This paragraph alone makes it worthwhile:

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Posted by David Jackson on June 6, 2005 at 10:49 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Barron's likes eBay (EBAY, SHOP)

Barron's lead article this weekend was a detailed bull case by Eric Savitz for buying eBay's stock (ticker: EBAY). Key points and quick comments:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 6, 2005 at 12:01 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, June 02, 2005

Is Amazon the loser from the EBAY-SHOP deal? (AMZN, EBAY, SHOP)

Yes. Here's why:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 2, 2005 at 03:13 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

Shopping.com acquisiton a sign of eBay weakness? (SHOP, EBAY)

So says Pacific Growth Equities analyst Derek Brown in a note to clients today:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 2, 2005 at 02:35 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

eBay gets a good deal on Shopping.com? (EBAY and SHOP)

American Technology Research analyst David Edwards thinks that eBay (ticker: EBAY) is buying Shopping.com (ticker: SHOP) at a 20% discount to fair value. He writes (in a note to clients):

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Posted by David Jackson on June 2, 2005 at 01:09 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: EBAY, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Internet news/analysis in brief (EBAY, HOLL, REDE, TWX)

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Posted by David Jackson on May 19, 2005 at 12:12 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: HOLL, ticker: REDE, ticker: TWX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Overstock switching auction marketing from TV to paid search

Overstock.com (ticker: OSTK) CEO Patrick Byrne discusses his company's auction business on his blog. eBay (ticker: EBAY) investors should read his comments about commitment to the auction business; and Google (ticker: GOOG) investors should read his remarks about switching marketing dollars from TV ads to paid search.

Here's the text (republished in full with the understanding that Mr Byrne would like his views made known):

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 27, 2005 at 12:08 AM in Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 22, 2005

Sell-side reaction to eBay earnings

From American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney's note to clients:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 22, 2005 at 12:16 PM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, April 21, 2005

eBay on paid search (quotes from the 1Q05 conf call)

eBay (ticker: EBAY) CFO  Rajiv Dutta  went out of his way to comment on the paid search market on the company's Q1 earnings results conference call:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 21, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

eBay beats numbers but growth is slowing (1Q05 earnings results)

eBay (ticker: EBAY) beat consensus estimates for revenue and EPS, and turned in a healthy year-over-year revenue growth rate of 36%. But eBay's growth is slowing. Details and quick comments:

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Posted by David Jackson on April 21, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Earnings results, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Short interest jumps for FLWS, HOMS, LOOK and NILE

Short interest data is now available for Nasdaq stocks through March 15th. Short interest has rocketed for some internet stocks:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 30, 2005 at 10:25 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: FLWS, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: PCLN, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Overstock.com getting traction against eBay?

Pacific Growth Equities analyst Derek Brown thinks that Overstock is beginning to get traction in its auction business. He sent a note outlining the evidence to clients, including the following paragraphs:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 29, 2005 at 01:59 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 25, 2005

Net stocks now lead, but GOOEY or GERQY?

ThinkEquity's Michael Moe argues that the US economy is now dependent on the health of Internet companies rather than industrial companies like GM:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 25, 2005 at 12:53 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, March 18, 2005

Victims of pay-per-click ad inflation

The most striking theme that ran through the Q4 financial results of Internet companies, irrespective of size, was the impact of rising pay-per-click ad prices. The winners were the ad brokers - Google and Yahoo. The losers were companies that rely on advertising to attract traffic, as their marketing expenses grew faster than their revenues.

This is a critical theme for investors (rather than short-term traders). Do you own stocks in companies that are dependent on advertising and helpless in the face of rising costs? Here's a list of the victims, with the relevant stats and comments from The Internet Stock Blog's write-up of their Q4 results or recent SEC filings:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 18, 2005 at 10:25 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DIET, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: EELN, ticker: LGBT, ticker: MNST, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: PRVD, ticker: SHOP, ticker: SPRK, ticker: TSCM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2)

Friday, March 11, 2005

eBay #1 in China? No, though Meg Whitman claims "yes".

eBay (ticker: EBAY) CEO Meg Whitman discussed the company's Chinese subsidiary eBay Eachnet and the competitive environment in China at its Analyst Day in February. Here are excerpts from her comments followed by a discussion of Chinese online auction competitor Taobao from The China Stock Blog:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 11, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, March 10, 2005

OSTK focuses ads on competition with EBAY

Overstock.com (ticker: OSTK) is now focusing its advertising on attracting buyers to its auction site. eBay (ticker: EBAY) investors take note. The rationale is explained in a letter on Overstock's web site to its current auction sellers:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 10, 2005 at 12:01 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, March 06, 2005

February short interest

Short interest in Nasdaq stocks rose by 6.3% month over month in February. But short interest for Nasdaq Internet stocks rose by more: on a basket of 25 Internet stocks tracked by American Technology Research, short interest  rose by 10.4%. Details:

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Posted by David Jackson on March 6, 2005 at 07:41 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: CNET, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ELNK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOMS, ticker: IACI, ticker: LOOK, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, February 25, 2005

Internet developments in brief

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Posted by David Jackson on February 25, 2005 at 08:48 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: SOHU, ticker: TFSM, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Netease (NTES) on the Chinese Internet industry (quotes from the conf call)

Netease (ticker: NTES) reported Q4 results yesterday. On its conference call, the company discussed eBay's (ticker: EBAY) China strategy, competitors' games, and the implications of Shanda's (ticker: SNDA) equity stake in Sina.com (ticker: SINA):

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 23, 2005 at 02:39 PM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: China, ticker: EBAY, ticker: NTES, ticker: SINA, ticker: SNDA | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Surprise stock implications of wealthy online user growth

Nielsen/NetRatings reports (PDF) that the fastest growing segment of Internet users by income during 2004 was the top group - those with household incomes over $150,000. Details of the Nielsen/NetRatings report, then analysis including stock implications:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 12:05 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: IACI, ticker: NILE, ticker: PRVD, ticker: REDE, ticker: SCH, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (3)

Friday, February 18, 2005

Internet developments in brief

Quick links to news stories and analysis of relevance to Internet investors:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 18, 2005 at 12:12 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MCHX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

PowerSellers not jumping from eBay

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney hosted a call with eBay PowerSellers to discuss their reactions to eBay's recent price changes. Here's the main body of his note (permission received):

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Posted by David Jackson on February 15, 2005 at 10:11 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, February 11, 2005

A sell-sider's thoughts on eBay's analyst day

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney came away from eBay's analyst day incrementally more impressed, but unwilling to change his "Hold" rating. He writes:

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Posted by David Jackson on February 11, 2005 at 09:34 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Wal-Mart.com catching up with Amazon and eBay

Nielsen/NetRatings reports latest traffic numbers for November/December:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 9, 2005 at 06:05 PM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: IACI, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, February 07, 2005

eBay reduces fees; implications for OSTK?

So eBay responded to growing negative publicity about its recent price rise, and announced that it will cut two fees. Here are the details and a comment about the impact on Overstock.com:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 7, 2005 at 09:37 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 28, 2005

Overstock's CEO discusses online auctions

Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne made the following comments about his online auction business in his letter to shareholders. This is required reading for eBay investors:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 28, 2005 at 03:56 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, January 23, 2005

After the fall, Fred Hickey says eBay is still overvalued

Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist investment letter, discusses eBay in this week's Barron's (subscription required - it comes free with the WSJ online). This is what he has to say:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 23, 2005 at 03:45 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 21, 2005

Stats from Craig's List

Here are some stats about Craig's List. Why do they matter? Because eBay owns a chunk of Craig's List, and Craig's List poses a threat to Monster Worldwide, Yahoo! and even eBay itself.

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Posted by David Jackson on January 21, 2005 at 03:15 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Thursday, January 20, 2005

eBay (EBAY) on China (quotes from the conf call)

eBay announced that profitability next year would be lower than analysts had expected. (The stock was whacked in after-hours trading.) Why? Because eBay plans to invest heavily in expanding in China and growing PayPal's business. Here's what EBAY said about its China expansion:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 09:05 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

European e-shopping could favor ECST, NILE, OSTK, REDE more than AMZN, EBAY

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that savy Europeans are taking advantage of their strong currencies by shopping from U.S. online retailers. The article mentions Amazon as a potential beneficiary. But here's a point to consider for investors in e-tail stocks:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 11:40 AM in Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: IBUY, ticker: NILE, ticker: REDE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Overstock gains from eBay fee increase, but can it reach critical mass?

Overstock.com issued a press release announcing that the number of auction listings on Overstock.com has risen by 50% since eBay announced a fee increase. Overstock also said it would cut fees on its own auctions to widen the gap with eBay. But investors need to be careful here:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 09:09 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

EBAY's Kurant purchase threatens AMZN?

EBAY purchased the technology assets of Kurant Corp. Here's eBay's description of what it acquired:

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Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 08:27 AM in ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 13, 2005

eBay eyes mainland China potential

According to an article in the China Daily, EBAY will focus on developing a customer base in China, rather than expecting to reap a profit from its operations in the nation in the near future.

"China is such a huge market, so we should spare no efforts to cultivate the market, rather than only pursuing profits," said James Zheng, chief operating officer of eBay Eachnet, the Chinese arm of the giant US firm.

Posted by David Jackson on January 13, 2005 at 12:20 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

eBay fee hike suggests that Overstock's not in the game

So eBay has raised its fees again, effective February 18th. Which goes to prove that the networking effect of having the most buyers and the most sellers generates a lot of value to them and a lot of pricing power to eBay.

Quick thought:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 13, 2005 at 12:28 AM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 06, 2005

Fred Hickey on eBay

Here's what Fred Hickey, author of The High-Tech Strategist newsletter, had to say about eBay in his December letter:

"eBay's domestic auctions revenue growth has fallen to just 29% in Q3 year-over-year from 32% in Q2 and 41% a year ago. eBay's overall growth (52% last quarter, down from 41% a year ago) is now reliant on the penetration of international markets where competition and barriers to entry are much steeper. The most attractive undeveloped markets, such as China, present all kinds of problems not seen in the U.S...

On the eBay home page, eBay groups its auctions into 32 major categories... A scary amount of the activity (or auctions) appears to be nothing more than attempts to find a sucker somewhere willing to pay a high price for an unwanted item or a "collectible", with the buyer often intending to resell it (on eBay) at an even higher price to a different sucker..."

Hickey says that eBay's valuation is unsustainable. (His newsletter costs $120 per year; call (603) 888-3954.)

Posted by David Jackson on January 6, 2005 at 12:36 AM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Five Internet danger signs to watch for in 2005

The next few weeks will likely see a flurry of predictions for 2005, to the point where you'll be sick of reading them. So instead, I'm providing something which I hope will be more useful for investors in Internet stocks and managers of Internet companies: a checklist of danger signals for Internet investors to look out for next year. For each danger signal, I've specified which stocks will subsequently be at risk:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 11:03 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: BFLY, ticker: CNET, ticker: CTRP, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (4)

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Craigslist also threatens eBay, Monster and Yahoo!

A report by Bob Cauthorn for Classified Intelligence estimates that Craigslist, in which eBay recently purchased a minority stake, costs the Bay Area's traditional newspapers and their online divisions $50-65 million in lost revenue. He estimates that a job listing on Craigslist costs an employer $75, versus $700 for an average recruitment ad in a metro daily.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 01:32 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: EBAY, ticker: MNST, ticker: OSTK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, December 27, 2004

Were holiday online sales THAT good?

E-commerce stocks are up sharply today on the comScore prediction that holiday online sales will grow 28% year over year. Earlier, comScore and others were predicting online sales growth of 22-25%. So the stocks are moving:

  • Amazon up over 8%
  • Bluefly up 11%
  • Drugstore.com up 4%
  • Ecost up 9%
  • Overstock up 2%
  • Shopping.com up 6%

Yahoo!, eBay and Blue Nile aren't participating in this rally. But I wonder whether three percentage points of upside to the aggregate growth number (28% from 25%) is enough to justify the moves in the pure-play e-commerce stocks. After all, 28% growth is still below last year's growth rate of 30%, and offline retailers like Wal-Mart are taking market share online.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm long SHOP.

Posted by David Jackson on December 27, 2004 at 01:40 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, December 25, 2004

Three lessons from the Google Zeitgeist

Google's press center just published its Zeitgeist 2004, a summary of the most popular searches in 2004. This is important reading, despite the fact that's it's backward-looking. Here are three key points from the Google data:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 25, 2004 at 11:44 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: LOOK, ticker: OSTK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Tuesday, December 21, 2004

PayPal founder says Internet stocks are "badly overvalued"

Peter Thiel, founder of PayPal who now works for Clarion Capital, says in an interview with Bambi Francisco on CBS MarketWatch that Internet stocks are now "badly overvalued". Why? Stocks have risen dramatically in the last few months, insiders are selling, and positive Internet trends are already priced-in. He also believes that the expensing of stock options next year will hit reported earnings of Internet stocks.

He specifically mentions Google and eBay as stocks that could perform poorly next year.

To put this in context, Thiel is a bear on almost everything other than the Internet. He thinks there's a property bubble in the U.S., believes oil will hit $80 to $90 per barrel, is bearish on the dollar, and thinks the U.S is headed for deflation. He's still investing in early stage Internet companies, though.

Posted by David Jackson on December 21, 2004 at 02:38 PM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, December 20, 2004

Rent.com aquisition makes Homestore look cheap

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney argues that eBay's acquisition of Rent.com makes Homestore look cheap. "The deal highlights the potential under-valuation of Homestore.com -- HOMS has arguably the #2 rental housing Website, the leading home buying Website, and trades at under 2X 2004 revenue." In contrast, eBay paid over 10 times revenues for Rent.com.

If that's right, why didn't eBay buy Homestore.com?  In fact, for that matter, why hasn't anyone bought Homestore.com?  IACI is in pushing into the real estate/mortgage financing listings business, but also hasn't found Homestore.com attractive.

Posted by David Jackson on December 20, 2004 at 01:11 PM in ticker: EBAY, ticker: IACI | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Analysts don't like eBay's Rent.com acquisition

Amtech research analyst Mark Mahaney says that the rent.com acquisition was expensive at over 10 times revenues.  S&P agrees, writing that eBay paid a "notable premium to such other online listings companies as Monster Worldwide", and adds that it thinks the acquisition lacks "significant strategic sense".

Posted by David Jackson on December 20, 2004 at 12:50 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, December 17, 2004

eBay announces aquisition of Rent.com

eBay just announced that it's purchasing Rent.com.  Price? $415 million, of which $385 million in stock and $30 million in cash.  eBay says Rent.com should generate revenue of over $40 million in 2004, and positive profitability. Looks like eBay is pushing further into the listings and classifieds business.

Posted by David Jackson on December 17, 2004 at 12:47 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Quotes from the eBay (EBAY) conference call

All quotes are from the CCBN StreetEvents transcripts:

Net revenue totaled a record 806 million representing strong year-over-year growth of 52%… eBay EachNet is far and away the number 1 e-commerce player in China… EachNet now supports the third largest eBay population outside the United States…

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Posted by David Jackson on October 21, 2004 at 12:13 PM in ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Quotes from the eBay (EBAY) 3Q04 conference call

All quotes are from the CCBN StreetEvents transcripts:

Net revenue totaled a record 806 million representing strong year-over-year growth of 52%… eBay EachNet is far and away the number 1 e-commerce player in China… EachNet now supports the third largest eBay population outside the United States…

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on October 21, 2004 at 11:56 AM in Conf call quotes, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: EBAY | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)