February 06, 2005

DoubleClick (DCLK) stock falls as company guides below consensus (4Q04 earnings)

DoubleClick's stock fell over 7% on Friday after the company announced Q4 results that beat consensus estimates, but provided guidance below consensus. Here's what Amtech Research analyst Mark Mahaney wrote to clients:

Continue reading...

February 6, 2005 in Earnings results, Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: DCLK | Comments (0)

January 12, 2005

DoubleClick says search engine keyword ad prices up 23% in December

DoubleClick released data gathered by Performics, its search engine marketing division, about December pay-per-click (PPC) ads. The most important data point:

Continue reading...

January 12, 2005 in ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Comments (0)

January 08, 2005

Analyst skeptical of DoubleClick's upside

DoubleClick announced that it expects to exceed its previous guidance for the December quarter. It now expects revenue of $81-82 million, versus previous guidance of $72 million to $77 million, and EPS of $0.06 to $0.07 versus $0.01 to $0.04.

DoubleClick's upside came from its "TechSolutions" segment, which accounts for about 64% of DoubleClick's total revenues and includes its core Internet advertising business and a recently acquired business called Performics.

As a result of the announcement, DoubleClick's stock rose over 8% on Friday. But at least one analyst is skeptical. American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients:

Does this positive pre-announcement change our Hold thinking on DCLK? For now, no. Our biggest concern from the September quarter results was that organic TechSolutions growth (excluding the Performics acquisition) actually turned negative (2%). You take the new TechSolutions guidance and subtract $7MM in Performics contribution and you've only got 1% organic Y/Y growth. Still seems extremely weak. And EBITDA margins are still on track to decline 400 bps Y/Y. So we'll maintain the Hold rating.

One year DCLK chart below.

January 8, 2005 in ticker: DCLK | Comments (0)

January 03, 2005

Firefox good or bad for ad click rates?

German online advertising company Adtech reported that Firefox users click on fewer ads than Internet Explorer users. In aggregate, 0.11% of Firefox users clicked on ads, versus 0.5% of IE users. (Info via this CNET story.) This is potentially worrying for Internet advertising (including search) companies and their investors, because Firefox is taking market share from IE. So what's happening?

Continue reading...

January 3, 2005 in ticker: AQNT, ticker: DCLK, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Comments (0)

December 29, 2004

Short interest plummets on four Internet stocks

American Technology Research analyst Mark Mahaney does a great job of compiling short interest data on 'Net stocks. This morning he reports significant month over month changes in short interest in four stocks:

  • CNET down 13%
  • DCLK down 17%
  • HOMS down 32%
  • NILE down 11%

Short interest on NASDAQ stocks is generally down, as hedge funds covered short positions to participate in the recent rally. But declining short interest is actually bearish for stocks, as it means there's less pent-up buying demand.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm short CNET.

December 29, 2004 in ticker: CNET, ticker: DCLK, ticker: HOMS, ticker: NILE | Comments (1)

December 21, 2004

DoubleClick/Nielsen survey may imply comparison shopping surprise

DoubleClick released the results of a survey it commissioned from Nielsen / NetRatings. Yup, yet another online holiday shopping survey. So instead of summarizing the unsurprising results (online shopping is growing faster than offline shopping - dah!), here's the more interesting part:

Continue reading...

December 21, 2004 in ticker: ASKJ, ticker: DCLK, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MAMA, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Comments (0)

December 20, 2004

Business Week says invest in Internet advertising stocks

Business Week's Where to Invest in 2005 issue recommends companies that will benefit from a surge in Internet advertising next year.

Continue reading...

December 20, 2004 in Sector Themes, ticker: AQNT, ticker: CNET, ticker: DCLK, ticker: INSP, ticker: IVIL, ticker: TSCM, ticker: VCLK | Comments (0)