Friday, July 22, 2005

Is China Internet user growth slowing?

From The China Stock Blog: According to the China Internet Network Information Centre, China now has 103 million Internet users after adding 9 million new users in the first half of 2005. Though the number of users increased 18.4% over the same period last year they are on track to fall far short of the government's 2005 year-end prediction of 120 million Internet users. This also follows relatively weak Internet user growth in 2004.

Posted by David Jackson on July 22, 2005 at 09:40 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: China | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Lehman Bros announces 10 Uncommon Values 2005-6; includes Microsoft (MSFT)

Lehman Brothers just announced its ten top stock picks for the coming year, known as Lehman's 10 Uncommon Values. This year's list includes Microsoft (ticker: MSFT). Here's what Lehman says about Microsoft and about its 10 Uncommon Values:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 29, 2005 at 02:19 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: MSFT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Internet stocks looking weak

Internet stocks are looking weak. That's the conclusion of a chart analysis of Internet HOLDRs (ticker: HHH), an exchange-traded fund that tracks a a basket of Internet stocks, on ETF Investor. The full piece is below; but before you read it, bear in mind that HHH does not include Google (ticker: GOOG). Since Google is the Internet stock with the largest market cap, HHH would look signficantly stronger if Google was included. And HHH's weakness may also reflect concerns that Google is attacking the core businesses of firms like Yahoo and eBay. With that caveat, here's the full article:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on June 28, 2005 at 12:04 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: HHH | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, April 29, 2005

The Internet Danger List: stocks at risk from Spitzer's attack on Adware

The attack on the illegal disemination of spyware and adware may not end with Eliot Spitzer's suit against Intermix Media (ticker: MIX). This report outlines why and provides a tentative list of other Internet stocks at risk. Stocks mentioned: ASKJ, CD, CNET, FLWS, FWHT, IACI, ICGE, INPC, SPRK, TFSM, THK, TSG, VLCK, and YHOO.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 29, 2005 at 03:14 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Advertising, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: CD, ticker: CNET, ticker: FLWS, ticker: FWHT, ticker: IACI, ticker: ICGE, ticker: INPC, ticker: SPRK, ticker: TFSM, ticker: THK, ticker: TSG, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (10)

Monday, April 04, 2005

Pope John Paul II on the Internet

A thought-provoking discussion of the Internet from Pope John Paul's Message of the Holy Father for the 36th World Communications Day:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on April 4, 2005 at 12:15 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, March 21, 2005

A VC endorses JUPM, but is he right?

Paul Allen, managing partner of VC firm Infobase Ventures, published a strong endorsement of products from Jupitermedia (ticker: JUPM), WebSideStory (ticker: WSSI), ValueClick (ticker: VCLK) and Linkshare (part-owned by Internet Capital Group, ticker: ICGE). But his assumptions are rejected by another entrepreneur, and require careful thought:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 21, 2005 at 07:10 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ICGE, ticker: JUPM, ticker: KEYN, ticker: WSSI | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, March 18, 2005

Victims of pay-per-click ad inflation

The most striking theme that ran through the Q4 financial results of Internet companies, irrespective of size, was the impact of rising pay-per-click ad prices. The winners were the ad brokers - Google and Yahoo. The losers were companies that rely on advertising to attract traffic, as their marketing expenses grew faster than their revenues.

This is a critical theme for investors (rather than short-term traders). Do you own stocks in companies that are dependent on advertising and helpless in the face of rising costs? Here's a list of the victims, with the relevant stats and comments from The Internet Stock Blog's write-up of their Q4 results or recent SEC filings:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 18, 2005 at 10:25 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DIET, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: EELN, ticker: LGBT, ticker: MNST, ticker: NILE, ticker: ODMO, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: PRVD, ticker: SHOP, ticker: SPRK, ticker: TSCM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (2)

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Seven implications of Yahoo! 360

Yahoo! announced the launch of Yahoo! 360, an integrated suite that includes web email, instant messaging, blogs, photo sharing, and music downloads. Here's a clip from Yahoo's press release, followed by analysis - a list of seven implications:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 17, 2005 at 07:00 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Competition and The Long Tail

Wired editor Chris Anderson's discussion of The Long Tail is important, but investors in Internet stocks need to analyze the impact carefully.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 15, 2005 at 04:26 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: CNET, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (4)

Friday, March 04, 2005

Under the hood of Google Movies - implications for GOOG and other stocks

Within hours of Google's announcement, its new movie search service received rave reviews from a lot of people. But investors and those wishing to understand the implications for Google and the other Internet companies need to dig deeper:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 4, 2005 at 12:43 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NYT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (2)

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Will advertising shift from newspapers to the Internet?

Yes. In one picture, here's why:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on March 1, 2005 at 07:06 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Advertising | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (3)

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

The future of comparison shopping

Sean O'Rourke, author of the Organized Shopping Blog, writes his thougths and questions on the future of comparison shopping. This is a must-read for anyone interested in Shopping.com, Google's Froogle, Yahoo Shopping, MSN Shopping, and ValueClick's entry into comparison shopping. Here are his thoughts in full:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 08:52 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: SHOP, ticker: VCLK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Surprise stock implications of wealthy online user growth

Nielsen/NetRatings reports (PDF) that the fastest growing segment of Internet users by income during 2004 was the top group - those with household incomes over $150,000. Details of the Nielsen/NetRatings report, then analysis including stock implications:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 22, 2005 at 12:05 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: EBAY, ticker: IACI, ticker: NILE, ticker: PRVD, ticker: REDE, ticker: SCH, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TSG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (3)

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Barron's - Time to get out of Internet stocks

Barron's Getting Technical column (paid subscription required) recommends that investors sell their 'Net stocks. Michael Kahn points out that:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 15, 2005 at 08:15 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Google maps: search companies and portals on collision course

Google released a beta version of Google maps. Surprise, surprise - it's terrific. As with Gmail, Google just seems to do things better. But instead of focusing on the individual application, investors need to step back and see the big picture: search companies and portals/content comanies are on a collison course. Why, and what are the stock implications?

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 9, 2005 at 04:25 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Hollywood Media adopts RSS; financial impact?

Hollywood Media (ticker: HOLL), which owns Hollywood.com, Broadway.com and 26% of MovieTickets.com, is implementing RSS feeds with interesting results. Here's quick outline of what HOLL is doing with RSS, and a comment about the potential financial impact:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 9, 2005 at 09:18 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, ticker: HOLL | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, February 04, 2005

CEO of Date.com talks about online dating

Meir Strahlberg, CEO of Date.com, talked about the online dating business in a speech at an industry conference. Why does this matter to internet investors? First, Yahoo! and IACI both own an online dating business. Second, dating sites are big spenders on online advertising. Third, dating sites will converge with social networking and content businesses.

Here's the majority of the speech:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 4, 2005 at 07:00 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: IACI, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (3)

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

As search engines add proprietary content, what are the implications?

Recent announcements have strong implications for the search business:

  • Microsoft announced the full release of its search service today.
  • Google announced that it would offer search of movie scripts and is planning to offer search of books stocked by major libraries.
  • Amazon.com announced that its A9 search engine will offer street-level photographs as part of its local search.
  • Yahoo! announced that in future it will provide its own financial data instead of relying on outside vendors, and will syndicate that data to other web sites.

Here's a quick recap of Amazon's announcement, then a brief discussion of what's going on in the search market and the implications for investors.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on February 1, 2005 at 07:03 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: GOOG, ticker: TWX, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 31, 2005

Digital River discusses web analytics and online marketing

Digital River provides e-commerce platforms and marketing for software companies. After its strong Q4 earnings report, the company's conference call focused on revenue growth, international expansion, financial leverage and the threat to its anti-virus customers from Microsoft's entry into the security software market.

Digital River is moving deeper into providing Web analytics and online marketing for its customers. Of all the topics it discussed, DRIV's comments about analytics and online marketing had the most relevance to the entire Internet sector. Here they are:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 31, 2005 at 07:10 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Advertising, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Services, ticker: DRIV, ticker: WSSI | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 27, 2005

Broadband driving e-commerce

Nielsen/NetRatings reports that as of end-December, 55% of users who accessed the Internet from home used broadband connections. Forecast for end-05:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 27, 2005 at 02:00 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, January 23, 2005

3 barriers to explosive growth in e-commerce in China

Analysys International in their ''Research Report Series on Internet -- E-commerce (2004)", found that the volume of e-commerce transactions in China reached 440 billion RMB in 2004.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 23, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 21, 2005

Should you worry that Internet stocks don't pay dividends?

No, because dividend-paying stocks are a mistake. (From Seeking Alpha.)

Posted by David Jackson on January 21, 2005 at 02:31 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

New China Internet users lowest since 2001

Fewer new Internet users went online in China during 2004 than during the previous two years. The numbers (via The China Stock Blog) are "absolutely startling" according to Ezra Marbach:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 21, 2005 at 10:10 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Click-fraud and the search engine stocks

Click-fraud is becoming increasingly problematic for the search companies. Look at this comment from Google's CFO at an investor conference:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 11:06 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Chinese search engine market grows in 2004

Asia Pulse, citing a recent report, claims that China's search engine market reached 940 million yuan ($113.6 million) in 2004. The market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 60-70% and reach 2.6 billion yuan by 2006.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 20, 2005 at 08:56 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: China, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: NTES, ticker: SOHU, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Internet stocks in for a tough February?

From The Kirk Report: "According to seasonal data from Stock Trader's Almanac, internet stocks tend to perform poorly in February." He also adds this interesting thought:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 19, 2005 at 12:37 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, January 17, 2005

Yahoo to acquire Six Apart?

Six Apart, the owner of hosted blogging service TypePad and publisher of blogging software Movable Type, just acquired LiveJournal. Within six months Six Apart itself will be acquired by Yahoo!.

Here's why.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 17, 2005 at 08:30 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: GOOG, ticker: MSFT, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (18) | TrackBack (40)

Saturday, January 15, 2005

European online advertising to decelerate in 2005?

Jupiter Research says online advertising in Europe grew 30% in 2004, and will grow 28% in 2005. ClickZ's coverage of the forecast is bullish - its headline is "Euro Online Advertising Up and Rising".

But the numbers imply a slight deceleration.

Posted by David Jackson on January 15, 2005 at 11:29 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Advertising | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, January 14, 2005

China Telecom launching e-commerce business

According to Interfax, China Telecom, China's largest fixed-line operator is choosing among competing suppliers, including 8848 and IBM, for a trial e-commerce platform to be tested in Wuhan.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 14, 2005 at 09:24 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

China's Internet users surpass 100 million

Sina.com reports that according to the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), the number of Chinese Internet users surpassed 100 million at the end of 2004.

CNNIC's 14th Internet Survey, which will be published next week, reported 87 million users at the end of June 2004.

Posted by David Jackson on January 14, 2005 at 09:19 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: China, ticker: SINA | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Chinese broadband use increases in 2004

Research firm BDA China released a report saying that the number of broadband users in mainland China reached 26.3 million in 2004, up from 12.5 million users in 2003.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 14, 2005 at 12:03 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: China | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

More holiday online shopping data, with public company traffic data

As if you haven't had enough of this, comScore released its final numbers for online shopping during the holiday period. It now estimates that non-travel online retail grew 29% year over year, higher than its earlier estimates. Travel grew by 28%.

More interesting was its list of top traffic gainers (defined by average weekly unique users). Among the publicly traded companies, top gainers were:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 12, 2005 at 12:07 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: NFLX, ticker: OSTK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Cramer on Internet stocks

Jim Cramer has a list of 10 predictions for 2005 on NewYorkMetro.com. Prediction number 9:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 5, 2005 at 06:14 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)

Spain and France lead growth in home Internet users

Nielsen/NetRatings data, via a ClickZ story, show that the number of users who access the 'Net from home is growing far faster in Spain and France than in the U.S.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on January 5, 2005 at 12:15 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Five Internet danger signs to watch for in 2005

The next few weeks will likely see a flurry of predictions for 2005, to the point where you'll be sick of reading them. So instead, I'm providing something which I hope will be more useful for investors in Internet stocks and managers of Internet companies: a checklist of danger signals for Internet investors to look out for next year. For each danger signal, I've specified which stocks will subsequently be at risk:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 11:03 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Content, Sub-sector: E-finance, Sub-sector: E-tailing, Sub-sector: Search, Sub-sector: Travel, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: BFLY, ticker: CNET, ticker: CTRP, ticker: EBAY, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: IACI, ticker: MSFT, ticker: NFLX, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: PCLN, ticker: RATE, ticker: SHOP, ticker: TSCM, ticker: TZOO, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (4)

The end of elation? Verisign's online shopping number is lower

Verisign reports this morning that online holiday shopping spending rose 24% year over year. That's lower than comScore's recent 28% estimate, and since Verisign tracks actual payments its number may be more accurate.

Verisign's category data are useful: electronics up 17%, apparel up 45%, music and video downloads up 54%, photo printing and sharing up 120%, and "general retail" up 24%. The largest constituent of "general retail" is Kitchen-and-Housewares at 24% of the total. Of note:

  • Electronics was an early success for online sales (think Dell), so it's a heavily penetrated category. Still, 17% growth is strong (all those iPods).
  • The apparel numbers are really strong. Offline retailers are getting their acts together, and Amazon's apparel store is working.
  • "Music and video downloads"??? Sounds like "iTunes downloads" to me. Who else (large) is there?

Posted by David Jackson on December 30, 2004 at 09:57 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: VRSN | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Home Depot entry to online appliance sales should help search and comparison shopping firms

Reuters reports that Home Depot has begun selling appliances online, with free shipping and a guarantee that prices will be the same as in its stores, with no regional variation. Home Depot has been slow to offer online sales of appliances. According to the Reuters story, Sears began offering appliances online in 1999 and Lowe's in 2000. Home Depot is now playing catch-up aggressively: its home page now features appliances, with the tag line "1,000s of Appliances - Now Available Online".

Of note to Internet investors:

  1. The purchase of high-priced appliances online will boost online retail numbers, but will likely come at the expense of purchases from physical stores.
  2. This is incrementally positive for search companies Google and Yahoo!, as demand for appliance-related key words (and probably their price) will rise as more companies enter the online market.
  3. The time and effort of comparison shopping makes greatest sense for large purchases. The expansion of the online appliance market is therefore incrementally positive for the comparison shopping businesses run by Google, Yahoo! and Shopping.com, as well as private companies Nextag, PriceGrabber and Shopzilla.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm long SHOP.

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 02:18 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: GOOG, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Traffic to e-commerce sites up 26%

Australian Web research firm Hitwise reported that traffic to U.S e-commerce sites during the peak shopping season rose 26% year over year. Hitwise includes traffic to eBay, Craigslist, classifieds.yahoo.com, and the Web sites of offline retailers, including Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Target.

Looks like this number is consistent with other data about holiday shopping trends, such as comScore's recent prediction of 28% online revenue growth. So probably no stock impact.

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 06:27 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Craigslist also threatens eBay, Monster and Yahoo!

A report by Bob Cauthorn for Classified Intelligence estimates that Craigslist, in which eBay recently purchased a minority stake, costs the Bay Area's traditional newspapers and their online divisions $50-65 million in lost revenue. He estimates that a job listing on Craigslist costs an employer $75, versus $700 for an average recruitment ad in a metro daily.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 29, 2004 at 01:32 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: EBAY, ticker: MNST, ticker: OSTK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Can you say "frothy"?

Barron's Mark Veverka has a short retrospective (subcription required) of what happened to tech stocks in 2004, which he sums up in one word: Google. "Why all the fuss?" about Google, he asks.

Answer: The return of the 50-plus price-earnings multiple. Recently, Google was trading at 183.75; Yahoo! at 36.66 and Ask Jeeves (which you could have bought at 2 in 2003) at 25.62. At those prices, each boasted a ludicrous price-earnings ratio, based on its expected next-fiscal-year earnings. For Google, it was 54, for Yahoo!, 73, and for Ask Jeeves, 19 . Do you know anybody who even visits Ask.com?

And he later summarizes his views of these stocks with one question: "Can you say "frothy"?"

Posted by David Jackson on December 28, 2004 at 12:12 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: GOOG, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, December 27, 2004

Were holiday online sales THAT good?

E-commerce stocks are up sharply today on the comScore prediction that holiday online sales will grow 28% year over year. Earlier, comScore and others were predicting online sales growth of 22-25%. So the stocks are moving:

  • Amazon up over 8%
  • Bluefly up 11%
  • Drugstore.com up 4%
  • Ecost up 9%
  • Overstock up 2%
  • Shopping.com up 6%

Yahoo!, eBay and Blue Nile aren't participating in this rally. But I wonder whether three percentage points of upside to the aggregate growth number (28% from 25%) is enough to justify the moves in the pure-play e-commerce stocks. After all, 28% growth is still below last year's growth rate of 30%, and offline retailers like Wal-Mart are taking market share online.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing I'm long SHOP.

Posted by David Jackson on December 27, 2004 at 01:40 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: E-tailing, ticker: AMZN, ticker: BFLY, ticker: DSCM, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: NILE, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Why thin clients help Internet companies

The Wall Street Journal has a piece this morning about the return of thin client computing, this time in the form of cheap PCs with limited processing power and storage. It argues that thin clients are once again becoming viable due to:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 27, 2004 at 12:13 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: MSFT | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, December 25, 2004

Three lessons from the Google Zeitgeist

Google's press center just published its Zeitgeist 2004, a summary of the most popular searches in 2004. This is important reading, despite the fact that's it's backward-looking. Here are three key points from the Google data:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 25, 2004 at 11:44 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, Sub-sector: Search, ticker: AMZN, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: EBAY, ticker: ECST, ticker: GOOG, ticker: HOLL, ticker: LOOK, ticker: OSTK, ticker: YHOO | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Monday, December 20, 2004

Business Week says invest in Internet advertising stocks

Business Week's Where to Invest in 2005 issue recommends companies that will benefit from a surge in Internet advertising next year.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 20, 2004 at 01:01 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: AQNT, ticker: CNET, ticker: DCLK, ticker: INSP, ticker: IVIL, ticker: TSCM, ticker: VCLK | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, December 16, 2004

E*Trade and the difference between technology producers and consumers

Don't confuse Internet stocks with tech stocks asserted that investors need to differentiate between producers of technology (tech companies) and consumers of technology (such as Internet companies).  Producers' revenues will be hit by the deflationary forces impacting technology pricing, while consumers will benefit from those forces through lower expenses.

In light of that, E*Trade's comments today were interesting:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 16, 2004 at 11:35 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ET | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Click-fraud & the public Internet companies

Two recent Internet conferences (Majestic's and Jupiter's) highlighted the growing problem of click-fraud. Speakers described how companies are hiring other people to click repeatedly on pay-per-click ads from their competitors. But nobody mentioned that the problem is far more acute with public companies. In fact, individuals can directly impact the financial results of public companies without it costing them a penny.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on December 15, 2004 at 11:39 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: ASKJ, ticker: ECST, ticker: FWHT, ticker: GOOG, ticker: LOOK, ticker: MAMA, ticker: OSTK, ticker: SHOP | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, November 14, 2004

Internet investing: A new world of fragmentation and transparency

Summary: the emerging trends discussed in the last piece in this series suggest that the Web will become more fragmented and more transparent. That has four significant implications for Internet companies and their stocks.

Here’s a quick recap of the trends, and then the analyis of their implications for Internet investors:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on November 14, 2004 at 11:42 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)

Friday, November 12, 2004

Four emerging Internet trends for investors

Market efficiency, changes in trend and Internet stocks argued that investors can make money by focusing on trends as they begin to emerge.  This short series of articles will try to accomplish that for Internet-related stocks.  Here’s the plan of action.  This post identifies four Internet trends.  The next post will look at the ramifications of those trends.  Subsequent posts will explore the implications for specific stocks.

Here are the four trends:

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on November 12, 2004 at 11:48 AM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, October 15, 2004

A lesson in technology and Internet investing from Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix shocked investors this evening.  It announced that it expects Amazon to enter the online DVD rental market. Netflix therefore plans to delay its entry into the UK market, cut its monthly service fee from $22 to $18, and no longer expects to be profitable in 2005.  Investors dumped Netflix’ stock after this announcement, causing it to fall by 37%.

I think investors were wrong to own Netflix' stock before this announcement, and I think they’re wrong to dump it now.  The reasons are fundamental to technology and Internet investing.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on October 15, 2004 at 12:16 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook, ticker: NFLX | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

The sweet spot in technology investing

Summary: The coming upgrade cycle in consumer technology means that consumer-oriented technology companies will outperform enterprise-oriented technology companies.  Tech portfolio managers had better watch out.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on October 5, 2004 at 12:20 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Don't confuse Internet stocks with tech stocks

Summary: Fund managers who misclassify Internet stocks as tech stocks will lose performance over the medium term, because companies that consume technology will outperform companies that supply technology.

Continue reading...

Posted by David Jackson on September 7, 2004 at 02:57 PM in Sector Themes/Outlook | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)